What should we expect from Steve Sarkisian's Texas in Year 1?

Courtesy of Texas Football

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With National Signing Day in the rearview mirror, we are evaluating the state of each Texas FBS program. The Texas Longhorns are ready to head into year one under new head coach Steve Sarkisian. 

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Texas Longhorns

2020 Record: 6-3, 5-3 Big 12

Head Coach: Steve Sarkisian (first season)

Returning Production Ranking (O/D): 104 / 72

Key Returners: RB Bijan Robinson (86 carries, 703 yards, 4 TDs), LB DeMarvion Overshown (60 tackles, 8 TFLs, 2 INTs), WR Joshua Moore (30 catches, 472 yards, 9 TDs)

Key Losses: QB Sam Ehlinger, DL Joseph Ossai, OL Sam Cosmi

Key Additions: LB Ray Thornton (LSU), LB Ovie Oghoufo (Notre Dame), ATH Ja’Tavion Sanders (Denton Ryan)

Final 2020 Ranking: 4

Way-Too-Early 2021 Ranking: 3

What went wrong: Tom Herman failed to win a title

When Tom Herman was brought to Austin, it was with one goal in mind. The Longhorns have not won a Big 12 championship since 2009 and hadn’t really been in the race since Mack Brown’s last season. 

But after getting to the Big 12 Championship Game and winning 10 games in 2018, Herman hit a ceiling. The Longhorns went 15-8 over the past two seasons, but failed to make the conference title game both times. Winning back-to-back Alamo Bowls is fine, but represented a slight disappointment with the context. 

Texas pulled together elite classes. It produced All-Americans. A hyper-productive four-year starter at quarterback led the way. But when the dust settled in 2020, the Longhorns were simply average. And that was no longer good enough. 

It didn’t help that rumors spread about discontent spreading through both the locker room and offices of DKR. When Texas had the chance to move on, the ‘Horns jumped on it. 

What went right: The floor has risen

Texas was disappointing in 2020 for not making the Big 12 Championship Game. That said, the new standard still represents a sharp turn for the first time in a decade. 

After Mack Brown retired, the Longhorns went through some lean years. Texas earned just one bowl trip and posted three straight losing records as Charlie Strong tried to refill the cupboard. Now it’s clear, talent is not the issue. 

Texas had 5-star running back Bijan Robinson ready to explode. DL Alfred Collins will be an All-Big 12 performer before long. The talent Texas acquired in the trenches in 2019 and 2020 is off the charts. There aren’t many proven receivers on the roster, but the talent level with guys like Jake Smith, Jordan Whittington and Kelvontay Dixon waiting in the wings won’t hurt. 

Texas ranked No. 5 nationally in the 247Sports talent composite. The only teams ahead are the overwhelming juggernauts – Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama, Georgia. In many ways, that’s why Herman was fired: Texas has the talent to be that good. That’s a sizable departure from Herman’s first season in 2017 when the Longhorns ranked No. 13. 

For incoming coach Steve Sarkisian, the favorable position isn’t a guarantee of success. Starting the race with a 10-meter head start won’t hurt. 

The losses are massive – especially at QB

Sarkisian steps into a room filled with weapons, but suddenly lacking in experience. Several of the Longhorns’ best players are off to the NFL, including former All-Americans Caden Sterns, Sam Cosmi, Joseph Ossai and four-year quarterback Sam Ehlinger. 

The Longhorns also lost young quarterback Ja’Quinden Jackson, RB Keaontay Ingram, linemen Reese Moore and Daniel Carson, one-time starting linebacker Ayodele Adeoye, blue-chip recruit Xavion Alford and a number of other high-profile players to the transfer portal. 

Unlike most programs, Texas has the high-end recruiting depth to deal with the losses long-term. For a coach in his first season, navigating the piecemeal depth chart could present a challenge. None are bigger than under center. 

With Ehlinger gone, Hudson Card and Casey Thompson are expected to compete for the starting quarterback role. Sark’s decision will have long-ranging impacts on the future of the program. 

Recruits are already flocking to Sark

Perhaps the biggest change from the Tom Herman era is already taking place – recruits are excited about Texas again. 

It’s still early in the process, but Texas has commits from four of the top 85 players in the class of 2022. The headliner is California QB Maalik Murphy, a consensus 5-star prospect. The wins just kept on coming last week as El Campo RB Reuben Owens – the No. 1 in-state player in the class of 2023 – joined the list. 

Remember, Herman pulled together back-to-back top-three classes in his first two full recruiting cycles. Early recruiting success doesn’t necessarily guarantee success. 

Still, the pitch is clear. Texas brought the architect of perhaps the greatest offense in the history of college football to Austin. Now, the best offensive players in the nation want to play at Texas. 

Now what? 

Year ones with a highly-talented roster like Texas are often a mixed bag. Tom Herman and Charlie Strong both eked their ways into the Texas Bowl in their first seasons. Mack Brown improved Texas from 4-7 to 9-3. John Mackovic and David McWilliams both lost five games, while Fred Akers and Darrell Royal went to major bowl games. 

With all the losses, 2021 likely represents just one step into the new era. It helps that Sarkisian has proven success at both Washington and USC as a head coach, but nothing quite prepares one for the task of coaching at Texas. 

Complicating the fact is that the Longhorns’ schedule is pretty difficult. We’re not saying Louisiana will beat Texas on Sept. 4, but the visitors should be a top 25 team. Arkansas on the road could be a sand trap. The Longhorns will beat Rice at home, but the Owls will compete for a while. 

After playing an improved Texas Tech at home, it’s a road matchup against potential conference contender TCU, Red River against the best Oklahoma team in years and Oklahoma State at home. Games against Baylor and Kansas should provide a reprieve, but road matchups with Iowa State and West Virginia in November will be no fun. 

The task for Sarkisian long term is simple: compete with Oklahoma for the Big 12 and take Texas to championship level. Despite the coaching change, Texas remains in a great position to do that heading forward.

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