Texas Tech is a team without an identity. Can staff changes help them find one?

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With National Signing Day in the rearview mirror, we are evaluating the state of each Texas FBS program. Texas Tech is next on the list after fan pressure forced major staff changes.

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Texas Tech Red Raiders

2020 Record: 4-6, 3-6 Big 12

Head Coach: Matt Wells (8-14 in two seasons)

Returning Production Ranking (O/D): 82 / 53

Key Returners: WR Erik Ezukanma (46 catches, 748 yards, 6 TDs), LB Colin Schooler (63 tackles, 5 TFLs, 2 PBUs), RB SaRodorick Thompson (109 carries, 610 yards, 8 TDs)

Key Losses: QB Alan Bowman, OL Jack Anderson, DB Zech McPhearson

Key Additions: QB Behren Morton (Eastland), OL TJ Storment (TCU), DB Rayshad Williams (UCLA)

Final 2020 Ranking: 8

Way-Too-Early 2021 Ranking: 7

What went wrong: The offensive vision was nonexistent

When offensive coordinator David Yost came into the program, he was one of the hottest minds on the market. Yost was a semifinalist for the Broyles Award for his work at Utah State, turning Jordan Love into a first round NFL quarterback. 

That kind of vision never showed up at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders ranked top 40 in scoring offense, but finished No. 57 in scoring offense, No. 105 in red zone offense, No. 50 in yards per play and No. 67 in passing efficiency. Time of possession isn’t a meaningful stat without context, but the Red Raiders finished last in the Big 12 and struggled to keep the defense off the field. 

After All-Big 12 tackles Travis Bruffy and Terence Steele graduated, the Red Raiders struggled to replace them. PFF rated Josh Burger the No. 215 tackle in the country. Caleb Rogers and Ethan Card were at No. 270 and No. 274 respectively. The position was a disaster. 

And ultimately, the lack of identity convinced Matt Wells to relieve David Yost of his duties and move in a new direction. 

What went right: The defense is better than stats show

Jokes about Texas Tech’s defense have followed the program for years at this point. Honestly, it might be the defining quality of the post-Mike Leach years. I’m here to tell you right now, it’s time to put that narrative to bed. 

The traditional metrics still don’t care for Tech’s defense – No. 108 in scoring defense, No. 99 in total defense. However, the Red Raiders found ways to keep games competitive down the stretch despite massive offensive inconsistency. Five opponents were held to 31 points or fewer and several others were within one score in the fourth quarter. 

Texas Tech also had the misfortune of being on the field for long stretches as the offense struggled to put together drives. The Red Raiders ranked top 30 in total play defended, ahead of 11 teams that played more than 10 games. The offense also turned the ball over 19 times, one of the 10 worst marks in the nation. 

Several of the top players on defense are back. Most of the projected starters have at least some starting experience. The Red Raiders also added some big-time transfers at defensive back and linebacker. 

If Texas Tech can limit the big plays in 2021, the defense’s statistical output could finally match its potential. 

The air raid is coming back to Lubbock

After two years of running the spread, Wells hired Sonny Cumbie to take over the offense. The former Red Raiders quarterback helped TCU contend for the Big 12 over the past few decades, and will be tasked with bringing the air raid back to Lubbock. 

Texas Tech’s roster still has quite a bit of air raid type talent, especially at wide receiver. Erik Ezukanma developed into an All-Texas College receiver. McLane Mannix is another upperclassman who will team up with young stars Myles Price, Loic Fouonji and J.J. Sparkman. 

Don’t expect the offense to look like Mike Leach’s though. The Horned Frogs ran the ball very effectively during their best seasons, and Cumbie pointed to run concepts he learned from Jerry Kill as impacting his vision. Without question, the offense will feature plenty of SaRodorick Thompson. 

There’s one big question first, though. 

An open QB competition is on the horizon

When Cumbie came back to Lubbock, there was a thought that it could help unlock Alan Bowman’s potential. Instead, Bowman understandably turned to the transfer portal to get a fresh start somewhere else. 

Bowman’s departure leaves an interesting power vacuum at the quarterback position. Henry Colombi started a handful of games last season, but likely was a better stylistic fit for the spread than the air raid. We haven’t seen much of former San Angelo Central star Maverick McIvor or freshman Donovan Smith. 

The real wild card comes in the form of early-enrollee Behren Morton. The Eastland superstar was the prize of the 2021 recruiting class as a top-150 national recruit. The jump from 3A Division II to the Big 12 is massive. Still, there’s no question, Morton has the most upside of any QB on the roster. 

The quarterback woes of the past two seasons have played a major role in Texas Tech’s struggles. Cumbie’s decision will be critical. 

Now what? 

What does success look like at Texas Tech? What does failure look like? With the state of Texas college football changing so rapidly, it’s hard to say. 

Kliff Kingsbury won eight games his first season and then posted four losing seasons in five years. Tommy Tuberville capped out at seven regular season wins. We have to go back a dozen years to even get to eight regular season wins. Since then, Abilene Christian and Tarleton have both gone D-I and TCU moved to the Big 12, which only further squeezes the local West Texas talent base. 

But regardless, back-to-back four-win seasons through the first two years of the Wells era isn’t cutting it. A 4-6 record in one-score games won’t get the Red Raiders to the promised land, especially when two of those games come against Kansas. 

The 2021 season will be a critical one for this coaching staff to get things right. This is the moment when the developmental culture Wells pitched should start to pay off. Losing close games isn’t good enough with so many returning contributors. Texas Tech needs to be in a bowl game. 

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