Tepper: In a chaotic season, why did Texas high school football get more predictable?

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Nobody will ever mistake the 2020 (or, we should say, the 2020-21) Texas high school football season for boring. From a jumbled schedule that pushed games past Christmas and into the new year, to the looming threat of COVID-19 outbreaks leading to postponements and cancellations, to limited attendance and Friday night broadcasts, this past season was singular in its strangeness.

But for all the oddities surrounding the game, the legacy of the 2020-21 Texas high school football season on the field may, in fact, be its relative predictability and stability.

For a number of reasons, it’s difficult to predict Texas high school football at a statewide level; there are so many variables in play with so many teams that anyone that tells you they know exactly how the season will go is lying to you. That includes us at Dave Campbell’s Texas Football — we like to think we do our research and make informed projections, but once toe meets leather, anything can happen.

A lot of our projections come from a few factors — like how successful the team has been lately, what kind of players they bring back from last season, and so on.

Which is what makes the 2020-21 season so interesting to examine, since it was relatively devoid of shockers, at least from a state title perspective. Of the 12 UIL Texas high school football state champions, I think only one — the 3A Division I champion Tuscola Jim Ned — could be categorized as a surprise.

Don’t believe me? Take a look at how 2020 compares to the previous four years in terms of two types of “surprises” — first-time state champions, and eventual state champs that started the year outside of the top five in DCTF’s rankings.

  First-Time Champs Champs Ranked Outside Top 5
2020 2 1
2019 2 2
2018 2 3
2017 4 4
2016 3 1

Just one team started the year outside their Top 5 (the aforementioned Jim Ned, who was entirely unranked in 3A Division I) and only two teams won their first state championship (Jim Ned, and 1A Division II champion Balmorhea, which can hardly be called a surprise — they started the year No. 1 in our 1A Division II rankings). That’s clearly more chalky than in past years.

This isn’t to pat ourselves on the back — rather, I think it’s interesting to see how the strange circumstances led to rather chalky results. I have a couple of theories as to why this is.

1: Defensive experience
“Defense wins championships” is an old adage, but I think it’s telling in this situation — while most teams did not get a full offseason (or much of an offseason at all), teams with a large compliment of returning starters on the defensive side fared much better. The 12 state champions averaged 5.8 returning starters on defense in the 11-man ranks (and 5 returning defensive starters in six-man) compared to 5.3 returning starters on offense (and 4 returning starters in six-man).

Class Champion Returning Offensive Starters Returning Defensive Starters
6A DI Austin Westlake 4 5
6A DII Katy 3 6
5A DI Denton Ryan 4 7
5A DII Aledo 4 6
4A DI Argyle 7 7
4A DII Carthage 6 2
3A DI Jim Ned 6 5
3A DII Canadian 5 5
2A DI Shiner 6 7
2A DII Windthorst 8 8
1A DI Sterling City 5* 4*
1A DII Balmorhea 3* 6*
    * — out of 6 possible starters * — out of 6 possible starters

2: Pedigree
We say it a lot around here: the first state championship is the toughest one. That’s because in Texas high school football, success tends to breed success. That pedigree shined through the chaos in 2020 — the 12 state champions this season now have a combined 48 state titles to their name.

3: Coaching stability
With most teams fundamentally not having an offseason, programs with veteran coaches clearly had an advantage. Of the 12 UIL Texas high school football programs that won a state championship this year, only two of them have been there for less than four years.

Class Champion Coach Year at School
6A DI Austin Westlake Todd Dodge 7th
6A DII Katy Gary Joseph 17th
5A DI Denton Ryan Dave Henigan 7th
5A DII Aledo Tim Buchanan 23rd
4A DI Argyle Todd Rodgers 18th
4A DII Carthage Scott Surratt 14th
3A DI Jim Ned Matt Fanning 3rd
3A DII Canadian Chris Koetting 11th
2A DI Shiner Daniel Boedeker 2nd
2A DII Windthorst Chris Tackett 9th
1A DI Sterling City Trey Sisco 4th
1A DII Balmorhea Vance Jones 9th

Any way you slice it, 2020-21 was a year for the blue bloods in Texas high school football — further cementing that when in doubt, run with the favorites.

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