SMU got to 10 wins faster than anyone could have expected – and that includes the staff. Now, the focus turns from having a strong season to building a strong program.
While stars like James Proche, Rodney Clemons and Xavier Jones are off to the NFL, plenty of talent still remains. Quarterback Shane Buechele came just shy of 4,000 yards and wide receiver Reggie Roberson could be the state’s best. Defensively, a whole host of transfers and depth players are ready to step into bigger roles.
The big change comes on offense, where former Appalachian State quarterbacks coach Garrett Riley – brother of Lincoln – will put his stamp on the offense. But still, with Sonny Dykes still leading the way, don’t expect an offensive dropoff anytime soon.
Having some level of staff and roster continuity could give the Mustangs an advantage when heading into 2020. Six months out, here’s how we project SMU’s upcoming season to go.
Sept. 5: at Texas State
SMU dominated Texas State a year ago and the Mustangs are still a big step above the Bobcats. Who knows, this could once again be a breakout opportunity for running back TJ McDaniel, who rushed for 159 yards and three touchdowns last year.
Prediction: Win (1-0)
Sept. 12: Stephen F. Austin
Colby Carthel is a great coach and has SFA heading in the right direction, but the Mustangs should easily take care of business against the Lumberjacks.
Prediction: Win (2-0)
Sept. 19: at North Texas
SMU’s loss two years ago helped nudge Sonny Dykes’ program onto the right path. With Mason Fine and a host of big time production gone from UNT’s roster, the Mustangs are poised to dominate Seth Littrell’s squad in Denton.
Prediction: Win (3-0)
Sept. 26: TCU
SMU beat TCU for the first time since the Frogs joined the Big 12 a year ago, and in Fort Worth no less. Even though the game is heading back to University Park, asking the Mustangs to repeat that result for a second straight season is a tough ask.
Prediction: Loss (3-1)
Oct. 1: Memphis
SMU saw its New Year’s Six bowl hopes end with a tough loss against an awesome Memphis squad on the road last season. The Mustangs could return the favor this season with a rematch on the Hilltop. Memphis has the best backfield in the Group of Five – maybe America – but SMU is one of the few teams that can compete with them on both sides.
Prediction: Win (4-1)
Oct. 17: at Tulane
Willie Fritz is doing a phenomenal job of resurrecting the program at Tulane. After a series of bowl seasons, though, the Green Wave rank among the worst teams nationally in returning production. Next year will be a rebuilding effort.
Prediction: Win (5-1)
Oct. 24: Cincinnati
Luke Fickell had opportunities to move to a Power Five school last offseason. With more than 70 percent of the production from a team that’s won 22 games over the past two seasons, there’s no reason to leave now. The Bearcats are positioned as well as anyone to shut down SMU’s high-flying offense.
Prediction: Loss (5-2)
Oct. 31: Navy
SMU only has one win over Navy since Y2K, and it came during a down season for Ken Niumatalolo’s squad in 2018. The Midshipmen are back, and that’s a tough challenge for an inexperienced defense.
Prediction: Loss (5-3)
Nov. 5: at Temple
Even after losing two head coaches last offseason, Rod Carey kept Temple right on track, finishing with eight wins and pulling off an upset against Memphis. NIU does it best on the defensive side of the ball. The big matchup in SMU’s favor? The defense is decimated by attrition, including likely NFL draft pick DB Harrison Hand.
Prediction: Win (6-3)
Nov. 14: at Tulsa
Tulsa is bringing back almost the entire offense and losing almost the entire defense. Unfortunately, defense has been the most pressing issue since Phil Montgomery got to campus. Plus, the last time SMU played in Tulsa, a bad loss screwed the Mustangs out of a bowl trip. Don’t expect them to overlook this team.
Prediction: Win (7-3)
Nov. 21: Houston
This game is quietly turning into a rivalry. SMU beat good Houston teams twice during rebuilding seasons in the past four years. Houston almost returned the favor a year ago with a slobberknocker at TDECU Stadium. The game will be ugly again, but SMU is the better team.
Prediction: Win (8-3)
Nov. 28: at East Carolina
ECU hasn’t beaten a conference foe other than UConn since 2017. Granted, the Pirates rank top five nationally in returning production, but the production isn’t good enough to compete with SMU, even at home.
Prediction: Win (9-3)
Bowl Game: Military Bowl vs. North Carolina State
The Mustangs will reach 10 wins for the second straight season with a big win against an ACC opponent. The Wolfpack will get to a bowl game with a relatively easy schedule; outside of Clemson, there’s a decent argument that SMU will be the more battle-tested team. SMU will win a bowl for the first time since 2012.
Prediction: Win (10-3)
Final Record: 10-3, 6-2
SMU loses plenty of star power on both sides of the ball. Still, many of the best players are back. Shane Buechele will compete to be the top quarterback in the state, Reggie Roberson could be the top receiver. There’s plenty of transfers and depth left.
This team will not be as good as the historic one from last season. But still, the Mustangs are a force to be reckoned with in the Group of Five. All the pieces are in place for SMU to compete for 10 wins for a second straight season.
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