Generally speaking, people don’t watch sports wanting to see the favorites win. Would anyone remember the Olympic ice hockey tournament in 1980 if the Soviets had beaten the United States? Would Super Bowl III be as memorable if the heavily favored Colts had made Joe Namath’s guaranteed victory look foolish? Would we even know the name of Buster Douglas if he had become just another victim of Mike Tyson?

Certainly not. Upsets are the great thrill of sports, when the down-and-out becomes the up-and-comer, when the nobody-believed-in-us makes us all believe. And Texas high school football is no exception.

Each week during the season, Dave Campbell’s Texas Football — in partnership with Jerry Forrest at PigskinPrep.com — puts out its computer projections for every Texas high school football game. To put it simply: the computer sizes up both teams and spits out a prediction, saying Team X should beat Team Y by Z number of points. DCTF Insiders love our computer projections — it’s one of the highest-trafficked stories on our site each week.

And usually, the computer has a pretty good bead on the games. But sometimes, the unthinkable happens — a ground-shaking upset.

Here are the top 10 upsets of the 2019 Texas high school football season, according to the Dave Campbell’s Texas Football computer.

10: Keller Central 35, Birdville 31
Central was a 36-point underdog

Back in the first week of the season, the computer thought that Keller Central was a big underdog against Birdville, and for good reason — Central was coming off of a 2-8 season, while Birdville made a run to the regional semifinals the year prior. And late in the fourth quarter, it sure looked like the computer was right, as Birdville took a 31-21 lead. But the Chargers responded quickly, courtesy of D.J. Graham’s 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown, and after a defensive stop, Gavyn White found Landon Walker for the go-ahead touchdown pass in the final minute as Keller Central stunned the Hawks.

9: Tyler Lee 27, Marshall 20
Tyler Lee was a 36-point underdog

Another opening-week script-flipper, Tyler Lee set out to prove the doubters wrong in taking on a powerful Marshall squad on the road. And while the weather didn’t cooperate, as the teams endured a two-hour weather delay, the Raiders weren’t going to be denied. Jamarion Miller and Mark Patton combined for 250 yards and three touchdowns on the ground as Lee kicked off 2019 with a bang.

8: Lago Vista 41, Blanco 21
Lago Vista was a 36-point underdog

Surprise! Another Week 1 result. There wasn’t much expected of Lago Vista entering the 2019 season, fresh off a 2-8 mark the year prior. And up against a 10-win team in Blanco, on the road? That’s a tall order. But the Vikings were up to the task, exploding for 41 points — more than they scored in all but one game the year prior — and stymying a high-powered Blanco attack to pull off the upset.

7: Frisco Memorial 16, Celina 14
Memorial was a 37-point underdog

Are you sensing a trend yet? Another Week 1 matchup, this one featured one of the most decorated programs in Texas high school football history against a team that had just one victory in its history. Frisco Memorial slogged through a 1-9 inaugural varsity season in 2018, and the DCTF computer didn’t think things would get much better in 2019. But the Warriors’ defense held Memorial in the game until late, when Ronald DeMadet banged through a go-ahead field goal in the final frame to stun Celina, ruin the Bobcats’ debut of its new stadium, and avenge its 53-0 loss to Celina the year prior. Oh, and by the way: that was Memorial’s lone victory of the season. Quite a way to make a mark.

6: Tornillo 13, Fabens 7
Tornillo was a 37-point underdog

From 2015 to 2018, the Tornillo Coyotes won a grand total of two games — both of them in their 2-8 season in 2017. And entering their Week 8 non-district finale against Fabens, it didn’t look promising: not only was Fabens bigger (a 4A vs. a 3A) and more successful (sporting a 4-1 record against the Coyotes’ 0-6 mark), but this was a road game for Tornillo. But something clicked for the Coyotes that night, using a spectacular defensive effort and a late touchdown pass to pull off the upset, winning its first game since 2017.

5: Frisco Liberty 45, Frisco Wakeland 35
Liberty was a 38-point underdog

Back to Frisco we go, to the regular season finale. Wakeland had everything to gain in this game — a victory over winless Liberty would clinch a playoff spot (though they could also back into the postseason with a loss and some help). Liberty had nothing to lose — a lost season, entering the finale at 0-9 and hoping to salvage some momentum for next year. And wouldn’t you know it? Will Glatch carved up the defense to the tune of 325 yards and three touchdowns passing plus another rushing touchdown in Liberty’s flabbergasting win over the Wolverines. Wakeland ended up making the playoffs anyway due to Frisco Lone Star’s victory over Frisco Heritage, but the night belonged to the Redhawks, who proved once again that the most dangerous opponent is one with nothing to lose.

4: Wortham 70, Dallas First Baptist 66
Wortham was a 39-point underdog

Sometimes, the best way to shock the state is to get into a shootout. Such was the case for Wortham, who faced off with perennial private school power Dallas First Baptist (which went 9-3 in 2018) in Week 2. Perhaps the computer read too far into the Bulldogs’ 2-8 season the year prior, but the fireworks show was soon on — First Baptist led 28-16 after one and 36-32 at halftime. Fueled by 571 yards on the ground, including 283 yards and six touchdowns from quarterback Brandon Coker, the Bulldogs showed the state that they mean business with a memorable upset victory.

3: El Paso Irvin 13, El Paso Andress 12
Irvin was a 42-point underdog

You know what they say about rivalries. Irvin and Andress met for the 54th meeting of the Battle for the Helmet in the regular season finale, and it featured teams going two different directions. Andress (at 7-2) had already clinched a playoff spot while Irvin (at 2-6) were a couple of days from hanging up pads. But thanks to a heroic defensive effort that held the explosive Eagles offense under 300 yards, and a gutty 199 yards and two touchdowns passing from sophomore quarterback John Knutson, the Rockets finished their season in style, knocking off their rival for the first time since 1997.

2: Saginaw 23, Haltom 21
Saginaw was a 45-point underdog

One last trip to Week 1, and it’s easy to see why the computer thought Haltom was a heavy favorite in this one. The Buffaloes had just finished their best season in school history at 13-1 and a run to the regional final, and they looked like a team stampeding for even more. Meanwhile, Saginaw had four wins in its last three seasons combined. So imagine the computer’s surprise (and ours) when the Rough Riders rode 215 total yards and two touchdowns from quarterback Kameron Williams to a white-knuckle 23-21 upset victory over Haltom. The victory alone is impressive; the fact that it came one year after Haltom beat Saginaw 66-7 makes it nearly unfathomable.

1: Beckville 35, Tenaha 28
Beckville was a 49-point underdog

Seven touchdowns. That’s what the computer thought. Tenaha entered this Week 6 contest at 4-1 and feeling good, fresh off a resounding 33-point trouncing of Timpson in the district opener. Beckville hadn’t enjoyed as much success — its last game saw the Bearcats lose by 42 points to Hemphill to fall to 1-3 on the year. Whatever first-year coach Cody Ross told his Bearcats in the bye week, it worked. Ryan Harris threw three touchdown passes and caught another as Beckville improbably surged to a 21-0 lead before holding on for the shocker. Even better for the Bearcats: they spoiled Tenaha’s homecoming, making the victory— the biggest ups et of the year in Texas high school football — that much sweeter.

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