Today, Dave Campbell's Texas Football rolled out its second annual Texas high school football Six-Year Program Rankings, a deep dive into the strength of each Texas high school football program over the better part of the last decade.

What are they? Here's an excerpt from the intro to the rankings:

With data help from Jerry Forrest at PigskinPrep.com, Dave Campbell's Texas Football is proud to unveil the 2020 edition of its Texas High School Football 6-Year Program Rankings, a look at the relative strength of each UIL Texas high school football program. The goal of the project is to rank the relative strength of every program in Texas over the course of the last six seasons.

Why six seasons? A six-year sample provides a steady measure of a program as opposed to an individual squad — six years represents one-and-a-half graduation cycles, mitigating the impact of a single transcendent class of athletes. In short: good programs have great teams one or two years, but great programs have great teams spread across a larger swath of time, like six years.

The rankings are based on a formula that takes into account the following five criteria:

Games Won — The raw number of games a team won relative to the maximum number possible (96 for 11-man teams, 90 for 6-man teams); so, of the maximum number of games a team could have won, how many did it win?
Winning Percentage — Of the games a team played, how many did it win?
10-Win Seasons — Of the six seasons, how many did a team win 10 games?
State Championships — How many state titles did a team win?
State Championship Game Appearances — How many state championship games did a team play?

The criteria are set against a 100-point scale, wherein a perfect six-year run — 96-0 (or 90-0 for a six-man team) with six state championships — would result in a score of 100, and a perfectly miserable six-year run — 0-96 (or 0-90 for a six-man team) — would result in a score of zero.

This year's set of rankings reflect the 2014 through 2019 seasons; last year's rankings reflected the 2013 through 2018 seasons. Please note: a team must have played in six varsity seasons to be eligible for these rankings. So, teams like College Station join the rankings for the first time, since the Cougars first played varsity football in 2014, while teams like Alvin Shadow Creek will not be in the rankings, since the Sharks — the 5A Division I state champs — played just its second varsity football last in 2019.

DCTF Insiders can view the complete rankings — all 1,189 teams — right here!

Here are some things that jumped out at me upon digesting the rankings:

Major Changes at the Top

When you take a look at the very top of the program rankings, you won’t see much change — it’s still Aledo’s world, holding on to the No. 1 spot for the second consecutive year. But the Bearcats are really the only constant — there was major movement in the top dozen-or-so squads. That includes a new No. 2 overall in Richland Springs, as the Coyotes jumped 10 spots to the second spot thanks to their undefeated state championship run. Also new to the top 10: Mart, who ascends to No. 6 from No. 15 after their third straight title. Gunter and La Vega also made big moves to No. 11 and No. 12, respectively, after sensational 2019 seasons. Former No. 1 Allen tumbled seven spots but held on to a spot in the top 10, at No. 9.

Titles Breed Success

The best thing you can do to improve your ranking is to win a state championship, so it won’t surprise you to learn that the 2019 state champions all made pretty substantial leaps. 6A Division I champ Galena Park North Shore cracked the top 20 for the first time; 6A Division II champ Westlake is right behind them, up 39 spots to No. 21; 5A Division I champion Alvin Shadow Creek is ineligible because it’s only played two varsity seasons (more on them later); 4A Division I’s Carthage is up a spot to No. 8; 4A Division II champion Pleasant Grove vaulted 72 places to No. 25; 3A Division I champion Grandview’s second consecutive title has them up 40 spots to No. 24; 2A Division I state champion Refugio has its best ranking yet at No. 3, up five spots; and 1A Division I state champion Blum made a 48-spot leap to No. 64 with its first crown.

Welcome to the Party (And Others Leaving the Party)

Because it’s a realignment year, we add a fair amount of squads to the rankings this year, and we’ve got some heavy hitters. Chief among them is No. 55 College Station, who is finally old enough to make the rankings and do so with a state championship and three 10-win seasons in tow. No. 320 Sharyland Pioneer also joins the ranks, as does No. 390 Corpus Christi London and No. 451 Frisco Independence. One more newcomers in the top half of the rankings: No. 479 Katy Tompkins. In total, we added seven teams to the rankings this year, though it should be noted that we actually have fewer teams ranked this year than last. That’s because we had a number of teams not field teams in 2019, including Roby and Sabine Pass. As a result, you may have some teams down near the bottom of the rankings that actually improved their ranking.

Still Waiting

Remember: you must have played six varsity seasons to be eligible for these rankings. Among the teams not yet eligible for these rankings, the top five would be: Alvin Shadow Creek, Midlothian Heritage, Corpus Christi Veterans Memorial, Frisco Reedy and Northside Harlan.

On The Rise…And Tumbling

The program rankings have a tendency to fluctuate when teams have an uncharacteristic season — if a team replaces a terrible season with a great one, they’ll make a big leap, and vice versa. The biggest risers in this year’s rankings: Lampasas (up 433 spots), Gladewater Sabine (+428), Corpus Christi Miller (+417), Vanderbilt Industrial (+416) and Friona (+411). The fastest fallers this year: New Boston (down 471 spots), S&S Consolidated (-451), San Angelo TLC (-431), Scurry-Rosser (-421) and Elgin (-413).

Other Notables

The highest-ranked 6A team is Allen (same as last year); in 5A, it's Aledo (same as last year); in 4A, Carthage (same as last year); in 3A, Canadian (same as last year); in 2A, Refugio (last year, it was Bremond); in 1A, Richland Springs (same as last year)...the highest-ranked teams with the exact same résumé: Katy and Mason (75-9 record, one title, two title game appearances, six 10-win seasons)...the highest-ranked team without a state championship: Argyle (No. 19)...the highest-ranked team without a state title game appearance: East Bernard (No. 35)...the highest-ranked team without a 10-win season: Georgetown (No. 311).

Make sure you check out the complete Six-Year Program Rankings right now — and if you aren't a Dave Campbell's Texas Football Insider, now's a perfect time!

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