If the volume of fourth-place district finishers who won Bi-District round games defined the opening weekend of playoff football, we’ll remember the Area round for a handful of shockers.

Let’s look back at what we thought would happen in a baker’s dozen worth of games, starting with the biggest of the upsets.

Jaw-dropping Upsets

Dallas Jesuit ends Longview’s 6A, D2 title defense

What our Greg Tepper thought: Longview was the favorite

What our Matt Stepp thought: Longview was a 21-point favorite

What our computer thought: Longview was a 33-point favorite

What happened: Dallas Jesuit 27, 6A No. 4 Longview 25

Our experts were so sure that Tepper nor Stepp chose to dissect this game in making their picks. The Lobos hadn’t been tested since September, and the Rangers weren’t sure one of their best players – running back E.J. Smith – could play after he had surgery to repair a broken hand on Nov. 5. Smith did indeed play, scoring all four of Jesuit’s touchdowns and rushing for 164 yards on 26 carries, and the Rangers never trailed. Longview closed to within 27-25 on Shannon Jackson’s run with 8:36 left, but the Rangers stuffed the two-point conversion and held on for the shocker. Not known for its defense, Jesuit frustrated Longview quarterback Haynes King into a five-for-17 night passing.

Bellville knocks off favored Jasper

What our Greg Tepper thought: Jasper was the favorite

What our Matt Stepp thought: Jasper was a 7-point favorite

What our computer thought: Jasper was a 10-point favorite

What happened: Bellville 54, 4A D2 No. 10 Jasper 35

We expected a tight, low-scoring affair. We not neither. Jasper committed a whopping 15 penalties and couldn’t slow down Bellville’s rushing attack. Richard Reese rushed for 308 yards and five scores, and Robert Briggs added 72 yards and a score to go along with a 97-yard interception return. The 54-35 shootout was a far cry from last year’s 13-0 Bellville win over Jasper.

Abilene Cooper rides Garcia, turnovers to upend Azle

What our Greg Tepper thought: Azle was the favorite

What our Matt Stepp thought: Abilene Cooper was a 7-point favorite

What our computer thought: Azle was a 12-point favorite

What happened: Abilene Cooper 35, Azle 28

Kudos to Stepp, who foresaw Cooper’s upset, just perhaps not the way it unfolded. Cooper opened up a huge lead (though maybe not so huge given all that transpired this weekend) thanks to 208 yards and four touchdowns from Noah Garcia. Trailing 28-7, Azle rallied but ultimately couldn’t get out of its own way, suffering seven turnovers, including five in the second half. Garcia’s 51-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter gave the Cougars a 35-21 lead, but things weren’t settled until Cooper stopped Azle quarterback Drey Owen on fourth down with 51 seconds left. Cooper’s defense recovered four fumbles and intercepted three passes.

Cameron Yoe’s defense sends Diboll to untimely first loss

What our Greg Tepper thought: Diboll was the favorite

What our Matt Stepp thought: Diboll was an 8-point favorite

What our computer thought: Diboll was a 2-point favorite

What happened: 3A D1 No. 8 Cameron Yoe 21, No. 5 Diboll 6

Surely unbeaten Diboll, which had allowed just 42 points in 11 games and only one team to scored 10, would avenge last year’s Area round defeat to Yoe, right? Diboll scored first, then suffered three turnovers and a bevy of penalties that, coupled with Cameron Yoe quarterback Braden Brashear’s passing, derailed an unbeaten season. Brashear passed for 291 yards and all three of the Yoemen’s scores. Za’Korien Spikes hauled in five passes for 160 yards and two of the scores.  

Rockwall knocks off Allen, defense-be-damned

What our Greg Tepper thought: Allen was the favorite

What our Matt Stepp thought: Allen was an 8-point favorite

What our computer thought: Allen was a 2-point favorite

What happened: 6A No. 22 Rockwall 60, No. 3 Allen 59

In last weeks Picks, Tepper all but talked himself into picking Rockwall, using the tried-and-true ‘the guy’ theory. As in, “Allen’s the better team, but Rockwall has THE GUY in Jaxon Smith-Njigba.” In the end, Tepper picked Allen with its better defense and pedigree. Should have trusted that gut. Smith-Njigba proved YellowJackets can indeed sting repeatedly, catching 15 passes for 252 yards and five touchdowns (all in the first half) and adding a sixth on the ground. The winning points, though, came with him on the sidelines fighting off leg cramps. Braedyn Locke hit Kade Klinkovsky for a 2-yard touchdown with 1:23 left, and Caden Marshall connected with J.J. Williams on a reverse-pass for the winning 2-point conversion. Allen, which had rallied with 21 straight points after Rockwall had opened up a 52-38 lead late in the third.

Big Leads, Bigger Comebacks

Guyer’s jaw-dropping comeback shocks Cedar Hill

What our Greg Tepper thought: Guyer was the favorite

What our Matt Stepp thought: Cedar Hill was a 2-point favorite

What our computer thought: Guyer was a 4-point favorite

What happened: 6A No. 14 Denton Guyer 50, No. 15 Cedar Hill 41

Guyer and Cedar Hill usually play close games, but seldom do they – or anyone for that matter – play games that unfolded the way Saturday’s Area showdown did. It almost defies explanation. Cedar Hill opened up a 27-7 halftime lead and extended it to 41-14 on Kaidon Salter’s 15-yard pass to Cameron Hutchings with just 4:54 left in the third quarter, well on its way to avenging a 40-36 loss to Guyer in the regular season. After that touchdown, the Longhorns got their hands on the football just once more, turning the ball over on downs early in the fourth. Guyer recovered three onside kicks and scored 36 points in the game’s final 16:54. Lineman Colby Strange, not the normal kicker, delivered two kicks that his team recovered. Eli Stowers threw a touchdown pass to Brandon Deleon to set up the first of Strange’s onside kicks, and Kaedric Cobbs scored all three of his touchdowns during the rally.

Midland Lee hangs on to oust Arlington Lamar

What our Greg Tepper thought: Midland Lee was the favorite

What our Matt Stepp thought: Arlington Lamar was a 7-point favorite

What our computer thought: Midland Lee was a 4-point favorite

What happened: Midland Lee 55, 6A No. 25 Arlington Lamar 49

The Rebels made the long drive east and arrived ready for business, jumping out to a 35-0 lead in the second quarter. Lamar, though, didn’t quit and mounted a furious rally of its own, tying the game at 42 on Jack Dawson’s 37-yard pass to Trevon West early in the fourth quarter. Lee regrouped quickly, regaining the lead on Christian Romero’s 6-yard pass from Mikey Serrano and extending it to 55-42 on Serrano’s 17-yard run with 3:16 left. Dawson answered for Lamar with 1:13 left and the Vikings recovered the ensuing onside kick. Dawson drove the Vikings to the Lee 12-yard line, but the Rebels broke up his fourth-down pass with 16 seconds left. Quarterbacks Serrano and Dawson combined for 959 yards of offense, 11 touchdown passes, and four touchdown runs.

Split Decisions

San Antonio Brandeis remains unbeaten against Alamo rival Clemens

What our Greg Tepper thought: Brandeis was the favorite

What our Matt Stepp thought: Clemens was a 4-point favorite

What our computer thought: Brandeis was a 3-point favorite

What happened: 6A No. 16 Brandeis 35, No. 17 Schertz Clemens 21

With a key win over Judson to close the regular season, Stepp liked Clemens’ momentum. Brandeis, however, carried its own momentum as well, looking to remain perfect, though quarterback Jordan Battles’ first-half performance was far from it with three turnovers. But Battles and the Broncos cleaned things up after the break and kept Clemens at bay.

Fort Bend Marshall ousts unbeaten A&M Consolidated

What our Greg Tepper thought: Marshall was the favorite

What our Matt Stepp thought: A&M Consolidated was a 2-point favorite

What our computer thought: Marshall was an 8-point favorite

What happened: 5A D2 No. 4 Fort Bend Marshall 32, No. 3 A&M Consolidated 27

Marshall turned a 20-18 deficit into a 32-20 lead and then held on to win a showdown with Consolidated. Devin Achane scored three times and rushed for 228 yards, but it was the Buffaloes’ defense that rose up following an untimely personal foul in the closing minutes. The Tigers, behind Brian Darby, drove to the Marshall 22-yard line before stalling and falling for their first loss.

El Campo smashes Beeville Jones to continue playoff run

What our Greg Tepper thought: Jones was the favorite

What our Matt Stepp thought: El Campo was a 6-point favorite

What our computer thought: El Campo was a 2-point favorite

What happened: El Campo 49, 4A D1 No. 9 Beeville Jones 13

For a quarter at least, the Ricebirds and Trojans appeared headed for a tight Area playoff showdown. Then the Ricebirds scored 28 straight second quarter points thanks to a stifling defense and punishing running game. Charles Shorter and Johntre Davis each scored multiple touchdowns as El Campo ended previously-unbeaten Jones’ season.

What we thought (for the most part)

Ennis survives battle with Burleson Centennial

What our Greg Tepper thought: Ennis was the favorite

What our Matt Stepp thought: Ennis was a 3-point favorite

What our computer thought: Too close to call

What happened: Ennis 17, Burleson Centennial 13

Ennis used a late defensive stand to thwart Centennial’s bid for a ninth straight win and advance in a game just as tight as our experts predicted. Centennial missed an extra point early in the game, which forced the Spartans to go for it on fourth and goal from the Ennis 5-yard line with just over a minute left. A jump-pass fell incomplete and a penalty on the ensuing possession let the Lions advance.

Paul Pewitt hits high gear with running game

What our Greg Tepper thought: Paul Pewitt was the favorite

What our Matt Stepp thought: Paul Pewitt was a 14-point favorite

What our computer thought: Paul Pewitt was a 7-point favorite

What happened: Paul Pewitt 55, Gilmer Harmony 24

What do they say about teams that can run the ball? Pewitt used a bevy of ball-carriers against Harmony to great success thanks in large part to the big guys blocking. Five different Brahmas rushed for at least 100 yards: Lajathan Allen (115, TD), Kei’untray Hawkins (111, TD), Cross Holder (110, 3 TDs), Deiontray Hill (100, TD) and Kadrien Johnson (100, TD).

Mason delivers convincing knockout of Weimar

What our Greg Tepper thought: Mason was the favorite

What our Matt Stepp thought: Mason was a 6-point favorite

What our computer thought: Mason was a 1-point favorite

What happened: 2A D1 No. 9 Mason 41, Weimar 8

Two regular season losses seem ages ago. Since beating Brackettville 23-22 in early October, Mason’s displayed some of the same traits that last year’s championship team did. Many expected Weimar to push Mason. The Punchers had other ideas. Klay Klaemer intercepted a Weimar pass on first play of the game and Mason jumped out to a 41-0 lead behind two touchdown runs and a touchdown pass from Matthew Kerr.

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