Another week of Texas high school football is in the books, and as the regular season draws to a close, playoff brackets begin to take shape.
Our experts have now had 10 full weeks to get their own handle on the season. How’d we do with our Week 10 predictions?
Didn’t See That Coming – That’s Why They Play The Games
United South springs upset in battle with Laredo United
What our Greg Tepper thought: Laredo United was the favorite
What our Matt Stepp thought: Laredo United was a 10-point favorite
What our computer thought: Laredo United was a 9-point favorite
What happened: Laredo United South 35, Laredo United 28
Neighborhood rivalries often provide the most unpredictable results. A fast start – United South jumped out to a 28-7 lead -- and some fortuitous bounces propelled United South to an upset of district rival United, proving our panel wrong. United saw two drives come up empty when they fumbled on the edge of the end zone. Those breaks, coupled with United South’s effectiveness running out of a new formation, led to the upset and a district title clinching win. Brian Benavides rushed for 250 yards and three scores for United South.
Unranked Whitney upends top-ranked Grandview
What our Greg Tepper thought: Grandview was the favorite
What our Matt Stepp thought: Grandview was a 13-point favorite
What our computer thought: Grandview was a 6-point favorite
What happened: Whitney 26, 3A D1 No, 1 Grandview 21
The District 9-3A-1 showdown went according to everyone’s projections for three quarters. Then Whitney threw a wrench into the works, scoring the game’s final 19 points and ending the defending state champion’s 19-game winning streak. Kolby Tanner’s touchdown grab from Garrett Peacock with 48 seconds left was the winner.
Midway stuns Temple with offensive outburst
What our Greg Tepper thought: Temple was the favorite
What our Matt Stepp thought: Temple was a 3-point favorite
What our computer thought: Temple was a 6-point favorite
What happened: Hewitt Midway 52, Temple 28
The Midway-Temple rivalry usually produces a close game, and the Wilcats making the short trip north to take on an inconsistent Midway team gave us no reason to doubt the trend would continue. Then, the Panthers put together the season’s best showing. Jared Moore threw two touchdown passes and added a pair of touchdown runs, and Will Nixon rushed for 220 yards and two more touchdowns to allow Midway to pull even atop the District 12-6A standings.
Split Decisions – Even Experts Look at Things Differently
Post makes resounding statement at New Deal
What our Greg Tepper thought: Post was the favorite
What our Matt Stepp thought: New Deal was an 11-point favorite
What our computer thought: Post was a 5-point favorite
What happened: 2A D1 No. 9 Post 53, 2A D1 No. 6 New Deal 0
There are limbs it’s okay to climb on and limbs you probably shouldn’t, as Stepp learned. Post has rolled through its regular season without facing the type of challenge it was expected to get at New Deal in a battle of ranked and unbeaten teams. The Antelopes had clearly heard enough about that, and the fact that the Lions had beaten them 32-7 on their way to a state championship game appearance last year. Post proved that last year is very much last year, jumping out to a 25-0 first-quarter lead and cruising. Slayden Pittman tossed a trio of first-quarter touchdown passes to get the rout going, Ashton Jefferson rushed for 190 yards and three scores and Posts’ defense held New Deal to just 109 total yards.
Gladewater springs upset of Sabine
What our Greg Tepper thought: Sabine was the favorite
What our Matt Stepp thought: Gladewater was a 2-point favorite
What our computer thought: Sabine was a 2-point favorite
What happened: Gladewater 40, Sabine 16
If he stepped out on the wrong limb with Post-New Deal, Stepp found a much sturdier limb in going with Gladewater in District 8-3A-1 to upend unbeaten Sabine while Tepper and our computer were left scratching their heads. The ultimate surprise in this one was how thoroughly Gladewater handled Sabine. Gladewater’s defense intercepted Sabine quarterback Landon McKinney three times. Gladewater’s D.J. Allen caught three touchdown passes and intercepted two of McKinney’s passes.
Barbers Hill slips past Port Neches-Groves
What our Greg Tepper thought: Barbers Hill was the favorite
What our Matt Stepp thought: Port Neches-Groves was a 2-point favorite
What our computer thought: Barbers Hill was a 3-point favorite
What happened: 5A D2 No. 10 Barbers Hill 40, PNG 35
Our experts expected – and got – a close game. Barbers Hill and PNG battled to the bitter end, and PNG had a final chance to stage a rally. With Barbers Hill leading 40-28, the Indians pulled within 40-35 when Brady Nail caught a 2-yard touchdown pass midway through the final quarter. PNG forced a Barbers Hill turnover and marched across midfield looking for a go-ahead score, but Ashton Hamby came up with an interception to seal the win for Barbers Hill.
Spot on – Always End on a High Note
Highland Park needs overtime to escape Lancaster in top 10 battle
What our Greg Tepper thought: Highland Park was the favorite
What our Matt Stepp thought: Highland Park was a 7-point favorite
What our computer thought: Lancaster was a 1-point favorite
What happened: 5A D1 No. 4 Highland Park 42, 5A D1 No. 7 Lancaster35 (OT)
We’ll say this for Highland Park: when the playoffs arrive following next week’s games, the Scots will be among the most tested teams in the state, having played two games against top-10 foes. The Scots regrouped after allowing the Tigers to rally from a 35-14 deficit. In overtime, Chandler Morris’ touchdown run gave the Scots the lead and the defense stood up, stopping the Tigers on downs to clinch the win. The win also marked Highland Park coach Randy Allen’s 400th win.
La Vega’s domination ends Brownwood’s unbeaten run
What our Greg Tepper thought: Waco La Vega was the favorite
What our Matt Stepp thought: Waco La Vega was a 3-point favorite
What our computer thought: Waco La Vega was an 11-point favorite
What happened: 4A D1 No. 3 Waco La Vega 31, 4A D1 No. 6 Brownwood 14
For eight games over nine weeks, Brownwood met every challenge, climbing up the rankings and getting a key win over rival Stephenville. But the Lions stepped up in class against La Vega. The Pirates forced twice as many turnovers (two, both interceptions by DeMarqueese Hayes) and Brownwood had surrendered in eight games and brought one back for a touchdown en route to a 31-14 win. La Vega led 17-0 at the half.
Klein Collins’s last second-stop preserves win over The Woodlands
What our Greg Tepper thought: Klein Collins was the favorite
What our Matt Stepp thought: Klein Collins was a 7-point favorite
What our computer thought: Klein Collins was a 10-point favorite
What happened: Klein Collins 20, The Woodlands 13
Once again, Stepp hit the score on the number, breathing a big sigh of relief when the Tigers held the Highlanders out of the end zone from a yard out as time expired. After Teddy Knox got The Woodlands to the brink with a 44-yard catch, he was swarmed under by the Collins defense after taking the snap on the final play. Braelon Bridges led Collins’ offense with 173 yards rushing.
San Antonio Wagner maintains district supremacy over SA Veterans Memorial
What our Greg Tepper thought: Wagner was the favorite
What our Matt Stepp thought: Wagner was a 15-point favorite
What our computer thought: Wagner was a 17-point favorite
What happened: 5A D1 No. 8 Wagner 46, Veterans Memorial 30
Our experts had this one pegged as well, calling for a two-touchdown win for the Thunderbirds, but it wasn’t comfortable. The two top teams in District 13-5A-1 entered the final quarter tied at 30 after Isaac Barrera’s 1-yard run and a subsequent two-point conversion brought the Patriots even. Wagner responded. After blocking a Veterans Memorial field goal attempt, L.J. Butler’s 5-yard run put Wagner in front to stay, and Joerell Brown’s 19-yard run provided the final margin.
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