TXHSFB Inside The Numbers: Trends, Projected Semifinals and Champions after Week 8

Newton football (Photo by Darice Farris)

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Welcome to Inside the Numbers, a weekly look at Dave Campbell’s Texas Football’s comprehensive computer rankings. Each week, we take a deep dive into that week’s Texas high school football computer rankings to sort out the signal from the noise.



At The Top… Humble Atascocita is the lone newcomer to the top 10, jumping to No. 6 from No. 14 after its 61-6 thumping of previously unbeaten Pasadena Dobie. Rockwall made a nice jump, too, up five spots to No. 16 after beating North Mesquite by 69 points. San Antonio Brandeis slipped three spots to No. 15 after only beating San Antonio Holmes 47-0 — the computer demands mercilessness!

Fastest One-Week Riser: No. 127 Killeen Harker Heights (beat Hewitt Midway 17-14, up 40 spots from No. 127)

Biggest One-Week Faller: No. 169 Belton (lost 44-17 to Killeen, down 46 spots from No. 123)

Projected Semifinals & Title Games Right Now…


Semifinals: Southlake Carroll over Allen by 10…Katy over Converse Judson by 14

Championship: Katy over Southlake Carroll by 6


Semifinals: Longview over Denton Guyer by 14…Austin Westlake over Cy Creek by 16

Championship: Longview over Austin Westlake by 8

(Southlake Carroll 4-star DB R.J. Mickens, a Clemson commit)


At The Top… The computer was particularly impressed with Richmond Foster in Division I, boosting the Falcons back to No. 8 with their big win over Angleton. Azle also nudged into the top 10 with a 67-point drubbing of Fort Worth Chisholm Trail. Division II had a little bit of top 10 shuffling amongst the same ten teams, with A&M Consolidated re-claiming the No. 2 spot from Fort Bend Marshall and Red Oak leap-frogging Huntsville for 7th.

Fastest One-Week Riser: DI No. 67 Texas City (beat Rosenberg Terry 29-14, up 23 spots from No. 90)

Biggest One-Week Faller: DII No. 58 Baytown Lee (lost 48-26 to Nederland, down 20 spots from No. 38)

Projected Semifinals & Title Games Right Now…


Semifinals: Frisco Lone Star over Denton Ryan by 9…Alvin Shadow Creek over San Antonio Wagner by 12

Championship: Frisco Lone Star over Alvin Shadow Creek by 6


Semifinals: Aledo over Lubbock-Cooper by 16…A&M Consolidated over Port Lavaca Calhoun by 8

Championship: Aledo over A&M Consolidated by 4

(Aledo 5-star RB Jase McClellan, an Oklahoma commit)


At The Top… Some big movers into the Top 10 in Division I, like El Campo (up to No. 5 after their big win over Sealy), Melissa (up to No. 6 following a win over Celina) and Decatur (up to No. 8 after beating previously unbeaten Springtown). Down in Division II, it’s a little more calm, though No. 7 Lubbock Estacado and No. 8 Sunnyvale leapt to Nos. 4 and 5 respectively and Longview Spring Hill makes its debut in the top 10.

Fastest One-Week Riser: DI No. 33 Crandall (beat Waxahachie Life 35-8, up 14 spots from No. 47)

Biggest One-Week Faller: DII No. 28 Wharton (lost to Sweeny 27-6, down 12 spots from No. 16)

Projected Semifinals & Title Games Right Now…


Semifinals: Waco La Vega over Springtown by 1…Carthage over Lampasas by 13

Championship: Carthage over Waco La Vega by 2


Semifinals: Pleasant Grove over Lubbock Estacado by 13…West Orange-Stark over Geronimo Navarro by 5

Championship: Pleasant Grove over West Orange-Stark by 11

(Pleasant Grove 5-star DE Landon Jackson)


At The Top… The big leap in Division I belongs to Mount Vernon, who scored a rather surprising win over Atlanta that pushed them all the way to No. 8. Cameron Yoe nudged into the Top 10 as well ahead of their showdown with rival Rockdale, who fell three spots after their loss to Troy. Division II is a lot more chalky, though the computer is not impressed with Gunter’s narrow win over Wichita Falls City View, dropping the Tigers from No. 4 to No. 7.

Fastest One-Week Riser: DII No. 25 Lexington (beat Clifton 29-13, up 27 spots from No. 52)

Biggest One-Week Faller: DI No. 31 Hughes Springs (lost to Hooks 35-19, down 22 spots from No. 9)

Projected Semifinals & Title Games Right Now…


Semifinals: Wall over Malakoff by 2…Diboll over Vanderbilt Industrial by 16

Championship: Diboll over Wall by 4


Semifinals: Canadian over Rogers by 12…Newton over East Bernard by 7

Championship: Newton over Canadian by 2

(Newton 4-star DE James Sylvester, a TCU commit)


At The Top… Not a ton to see in Division I as far as change is concerned — West Texas edged into the top 10 as Weimar dropped out after its big loss to Shiner. Division II is similarly chalky, though Hamilin leapt Falls City for the No. 4 spot and Eldorado found its way into the Top 10 for the first time this season.

Fastest One-Week Riser: DII No. 37 Chilton (beat Iola 34-12, up 14 spots from No. 51)

Biggest One-Week Faller: DI No. 53 DeLeon (lost to Valley Mills 21-0, down 15 spots from No. 38)

Projected Semifinals & Title Games Right Now…


Semifinals: San Saba over Panhandle by 8…Shiner over San Augustine by 6

Championship: Shiner over San Saba by 12


Semifinals: Stratford over Wellington by 3…Mart over Falls City by 5

Championship: Stratford over Mart by 5



At The Top… The top 10 in Division I is the same teams, just a little jumbled, as Borden County falls to No. 7 and Sterling City and Paducah leap-frog the Coyotes for Nos. 5 and 6, respectively. Rankin is up two spots to No. 8. Division II is even more chalky, if it’s possible, with only Blanket’s re-entrance to the Top 10 at No. 10 is of any note.

Fastest One-Week Riser: DII No. 59 Benjamin (beat Trent 49-0, up 9 spots from No. 60)

Biggest One-Week Faller: DII No. 40 Ladonia Fannindel (lost to Campbell 44-7, down 13 spots from No. 27)

Projected Semifinals & Title Games Right Now…


Semifinals: Balmorhea over McLean by 1…Union Hill over Leakey by 3

Championship: Balmorhea over Union Hill by 9


Semifinals: Motley County over Jayton by 2…Richland Springs over Gordon by 6

Championship: Richland Springs over Motley County by 1

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