TXHSFB Inside The Numbers: Trends, Projected Semifinals and Champions after Week 7

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Welcome to Inside the Numbers, a weekly look at Dave Campbell’s Texas Football’s comprehensive computer rankings. Each week, we take a deep dive into that week’s Texas high school football computer rankings to sort out the signal from the noise.

CLASS 6A

At The Top… Dickinson shifts up a couple of spots to No. 9, while Allen’s strength of schedule continues to hurt it, dropping the Eagles out of the top 10. Lake Travis moves up a couple spots to No. 15, while Westlake (even with a loss) remains static at No. 6. The biggest mover in the top 25 is Klein Collins, who surged 12 spots up to No. 24.

Fastest One-Week Riser: No. 39 Dallas Jesuit (beat Prosper 41-14, up 38 spots from No. 77)

Biggest One-Week Faller: No. 114 Coppell (lost to Lewisville 35-10, down 41 spots from No. 73)

Projected Semifinals & Title Games Right Now…

DIVISION I

Semifinals: Southlake Carroll over Allen by 8…Katy over Converse Judson by 16

Championship: Katy over Southlake Carroll by 10

DIVISION II

Semifinals: Longview over Cedar Hill by 15…Austin Westlake over Cy Creek by 16

Championship: Longview over Austin Westlake by 10

 

CLASS 5A

At The Top… Only some minor changes in Division I, where College Station leapfrogged Mansfield Timberview for the No. 9 spot and Cedar Park nudged up a spot to No. 8, setting up a great showdown with No. 11 Hutto. Division II welcomes Red Oak to the Top 10 after drubbing previously undefeated Dallas Kimball, while A&M Consolidated’s win over previously unbeaten Lamar Consolidated edged them up to No. 3.

Fastest One-Week Riser: DI No. 66 El Paso Chapin (beat El Paso Bel Air 61-21, up 33 spots from No. 99)

Biggest One-Week Faller: DI No. 100 El Paso Bel Air (lost to El Paso Chapin 61-21, down 33 spots from No. 67)

Projected Semifinals & Title Games Right Now…

DIVISION I

Semifinals: Frisco Lone Star over Denton Ryan by 12…Alvin Shadow Creek over San Antonio Wagner by 10

Championship: Frisco Lone Star over Alvin Shadow Creek by 11

DIVISION II

Semifinals: Aledo over Lubbock-Cooper by 21…Fort Bend Marshall over Corpus Christi Calallen by 7

Championship: Aledo over Fort Bend Marshall by 4

 

CLASS 4A

At The Top… In Division I, well HELLO Celina! The Bobcats’ throttling of Paris jumped them from No. 21 all the way to No. 5, while Needville’s big win over Columbia pushed them from No. 11 to No. 8. Also of note is El Campo’s big move, jumping from No. 29 to No. 10. Division II Is much less dramatic, though Lorena’s win over Robinson caught the computer’s eye, jumping them into the top 10. In that same district, Mexia’s shocker over Fairfield got them all the way up to No. 14 from No. 33.

Fastest One-Week Riser: DI No. 10 El Campo (beat Brazosport 51-17, up 19 spots from No. 29) and DII No. 14 Mexia (beat Robinson 42-21, up 19 spots from No. 33)

Biggest One-Week Faller: DI No. 39 Brazosport (lost to El Campo 51-17, down 19 spots from No. 20)

Projected Semifinals & Title Games Right Now…

DIVISION I

Semifinals: Waco La Vega over Springtown by 10…Carthage over Lampasas by 19

Championship: Carthage over Waco La Vega by 7

DIVISION II

Semifinals: Pleasant Grove over Midland Greenwood by 11…West Orange-Stark over Geronimo Navarro by 2

Championship: Pleasant Grove over West Orange-Stark by 11

 

CLASS 3A

At The Top… In Division I, the story is Hughes Springs, who followed up a win over Jefferson with a win over Atlanta and jumped up into the top 10 at No. 9. Vanderbilt Industrial also made a nice move from No. 31 to No. 16 with a big win over Yoakum, while Cameron Yoe is back up to No. 11 after blanking Jarrell. In Division II, the computer continues to love Childress, who finally got its first win of the year and jumped to No. 12 as a result. Everything else is pretty chalky.

Fastest One-Week Riser: DII No. 67 Leonard (beat Paris Chisum 62-21, up 21 spots from No. 88)

Biggest One-Week Faller: DI No. 66 Rice Consolidated (lost to Palacios 41-0, down 26 spots from No. 40)

Projected Semifinals & Title Games Right Now…

DIVISION I

Semifinals: Wall over Malakoff by 2…Diboll over Grandview by 3

Championship: Diboll over Wall by 2

DIVISION II

Semifinals: Canadian over Gunter by 12…Newton over East Bernard by 7

Championship: Newton over Canadian by 3

 

CLASS 2A

At The Top… In Division I, the computer finally found some respect for the undefeated Post Antelopes, who nudged into the Top 10 at No. 9. San Augustine leap-frogged Refugio for the No. 2 spot, and everything else was pretty static. In Division II, we finally had a pretty boring week, and even still, we have a new No. 1, with Stratford edging Wellington for the top spot.

Fastest One-Week Riser: DI No. 43 Timpson (beat Garrison 7-0, up 18 spots from No. 61)

Biggest One-Week Faller: DI No. 60 Beckville (lost to Harleton 42-14, down 16 spots from No. 44)

Projected Semifinals & Title Games Right Now…

DIVISION I

Semifinals: San Saba over Hawley by 11…Shiner over San Augustine by 3

Championship: Shiner over San Augustine by 3

DIVISION II

Semifinals: Stratford over Wellington by 1…Mart over Falls City by 2

Championship: Stratford over Mart by 6

 

CLASS 1A

At The Top… Despite a win, Borden County tumbled from No. 3 to No. 5, with McLean and Ira taking their spots ahead of the Coyotes in Division I. Division II has a new king as Richland Springs ascends to the top, followed by Motley County who, despite three losses, has a very impressive résumé. Previous No. 1 Jayton tumbled to third despite a 50-0 win. It’s hard out here in these computer rankings.

Fastest One-Week Riser: DII No. 35 Rule (beat Wilson 68-22, up 19 spots from No. 54)

Biggest One-Week Faller: DII No. 58 Wilson (lost to Rule 68-22, down 21 spots from No. 37)

Projected Semifinals & Title Games Right Now…

DIVISION I

Semifinals: Balmorhea over McLean by 1…Union Hill over Leakey by 3

Championship: Balmorhea over Union Hill by 9

DIVISION II

Semifinals: Motley County over Jayton by 1…Richland Springs over Gordon by 8

Championship: Richland Springs over Motley County by 1

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