Every year, with the help of Pigskin Prep's Jerry Forrest, the Dave Campbell's Texas Football staff ranks every team in every classification before the season kicks off. The rankings are determined by a number of factors, including previous performance, schedule strength, roster depth and more. Many of those rankings age pretty well: of the 48 teams to reach the state semifinals this year, 37 were in our preseason Top 10 in their respective classifications. But we definitely didn't see some of these teams coming, here are the 10 squads who defied their preseason ranking, from least surprising to most surprising.

10. New Deal (16)

Coming off of a 12-2 season in which they lost just eight seniors, the Lions seemed primed for a similar season to last year but didn’t appear to have the depth to make a state run. Obviously, that hasn’t been the case as New Deal dominated District 1-2A DI and has had one of the most dynamic offenses in the 2A ranks. Their efficient offense — which averaged 54 points a game in district play — has been led by the offensive line’s physicality in the trenches. Deandre Nelson and Jayton Mitchell have been exceptional assets in giving dual-threat quarterback Jett Whitfield (2,114 passing yards, 1,720 rushing yards, 57 TD) time to make plays. No team has come within 17 points of defeating the Lions in the playoffs and they will face San Saba (who we'll get to in a moment) on Friday night. 

9. Decatur (18)

Despite making it to the third round of playoffs last season, most people wrote the Eagles off after last year’s quarterback Wilson Hicks (3,887 passing yards, 52 TD) announced that he wouldn’t be returning this season so that he could focus on baseball. His incumbent, junior Roman Fuller, saw very little playing time last season but has been incredible -- racking up 4,508 passing yards and 45 touchdowns. Realignment helped the Eagles by taking perennial power Argyle out of their district but the Eagles haven’t had an easy schedule by any stretch of the imagination. Their slate ranks the fifth-toughest in the state with a brutal pre-district run that included games against Kennedale, Midlothian Heritage, Graham and Glen Rose – all of whom finished first in their respective districts. The Eagles' offense (36 points per game), has really been the driving force behind their success and Fuller and company will need to keep that trend alive on Friday as they play one of the most physical defenses in the state in La Vega.

8. Iowa Park (20)

Following last year’s 7-5 season, the cupboard appeared pretty bare for head coach Aubrey Sims as his team graduated 24 of their 39 players. However, quarterback Trent Green’s development has been sped up which has catalyzed the Hawks' spread offense. Green has benefited from playing behind an offensive line that is much better than anticipated — with big men Billy Link and Ryder Roberts dominating opposing defensive lines. The Hawks’ district is virtually the same as it was last year with Aubrey the lone addition. Their non-district slate, however, was brutal and they dropped five of their first six games. Green's absence early in the season was a big part of that rut. Iowa Park has since roared back, winning their last nine games and firing on all cylinders.

7. Wichita Falls Rider (21)

ROHO entered the season with low expectations after a (5-6) varsity season and a (5-5) JV season in 2017. Also working against Marc Bindel’s squad was the fact that they had just eight starters returning from last year’s team. Realignment played to the Raiders’ advantage as it removed juggernaut Denton Ryan from their district and District 3-5A DII began the season with no clear-cut favorite. Perhaps the most important factor that has allowed Rider to prove the doubters wrong is its surprisingly stout defense. After allowing an average of 34 points per game in 2017, the Raiders have allowed just 22 points per game this season. The reason the defense has turned the corner can be attributed to newcomers making big impacts. Isaiah Wetzel highlights a loaded sophomore class that has augmented Rider’s 3-4 defense quicker than expected, and on the offensive side, Jacob Rodriguez has been a revelation at QB. The Raiders have proven that they are a completely different team compared to last year, but how much different? That will be put to the test as they face Aledo — who beat them 72-13 in the first round of last year’s playoffs -- on Friday night. 

6. San Antonio Wagner (26)

After their varsity went (1-6) in district play last season and their JV went (3-5-1), the Thunderbirds certainly didn’t appear to be built for 2018 success. But optimism started with a move down to 5A DI from 6A. On top of that, the evolution of quarterback Tobias Weaver’s passing game has helped land Wagner in their first state semifinal appearance in program history. Weaver relied almost solely on his mobility last year to create plays in Wagner’s double-slot offense, but this year the signal-caller has been much calmer in the pocket and has accounted for 1,200 passing yards, 20 TD's and just two interceptions. Weaver’s development has led the Thunderbirds to an average of 59 points per game, a stark contrast from the 23 points per game they averaged in 2017. Kavon and Javon Barnes are two of the eight defensive starters that returned from last year’s squad and the duo have been playmakers in the secondary. Charles Bruce’s squad opened some eyes when they only lost by a touchdown to 6A state quarterfinalist Converse Judson in week two and have only improved since then. The Thunderbirds have an average margin of victory of 39.75 points in their four playoff games and will likely play in a much closer contest as they take on Shadow Creek (another team we'll get to in a moment) on Saturday night. 

5. Leakey (29)

After they struggled to field the numbers to compete in 2A, Leakey moved down to 1A Six-Man this season and the Eagles excelled in the new style of football. Between a head coaching change, seven of last year's 15 players graduating and moving to a very different style of game, the odds were stacked against them for 2018. First-year head coach Shannon Williams inherited a team that went (1-9) in 2017 and the Eagles (12-2) looked like a completely different team once Williams took the reins. One of the reasons for that was sophomore dual-threat quarterback Hunter Williams (1,110 passing yards, 2,194 rushing yards, 39 TD) who was an absolute game-changer in his first year under center. Running back Trace Lackey was phenomenal last season and his skill set translated very well to the six-man game. Lackey has garnered 1,123 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns this season, and while they were knocked out in the the 1A semifinals, which took place last week, they earned their spot on this list. 

4. West Brook (38)

Realignment sent West Brook from one tough district to another. However, this year’s — District 21-6A — is much larger with eight teams, including Galena Park North Shore. Despite the tougher district, it was well known that the Bruins would field a decent squad with returning playmakers L’Ravien Elia and Deonte Simpson leading their spread offense. Still, finishing second in district and advancing to the state semifinal seemed like a pipe dream. Elia (1,822 passing yards, 22 TD's), who split time at quarterback last season, has been given full control of the offense and will attempt to lead the Bruins to their second state title appearance on Saturday. 

3. Shadow Creek (56)

Shadow Creek played a hodge-podge of schools the last two years as they awaited realignment so that the school — which opened its doors in 2016 — could officially be placed in a district and being varsity play. The Sharks finished last season 5-4, but entering the season it was tough to decipher what to make of last season as they faced just one 5A program, and then were placed in the very tough District 1-5A DI. There simplty wasn't a lot of data to work with when projecting how good the Sharks could be, and it usually takes a while for new programs to get rolling. Running back Marquez Huland (1,374 rushing yards, 17 TD) and quarterback Jamarian George (2,852 passing yards, 32 TD) quickly silenced any doubters, ran through their district and have made light work of their playoff opponents. Head coach Brad Butler deserves high marks for getting a team this far in an inaugural season. 

2. San Saba (61)

Last season was about development in head coach Jared Fikac’s inaugural season at San Saba, and the program was coming off two consecutive season where it went a combined 1-19. The Armadillos graduated just five seniors and their young corps took great strides despite finishing the season 3-7. Fikac’s team returned 18 starters this season and added some difference makers from last year’s JV team that finished 10-0. Junior quarterback Sean O’keefe (2,237 passing yards, 1,612 rushing yards, 35 TD)  has taken substantial strides after he was thrown into the fire in his sophomore campaign. The most glaring difference is the signal caller’s ability to move the chains with his feet, as he has accumulated 1,017 rushing yards more than he did last season. O’Keefe’s improvement helped the offense average 59 points per game this season in comparison to the 18 points per game they averaged in district play last season, and he's buoyed by perhaps one of the smartest running backs in the state in Eli Salinas, a patient workhorse who waits for blocks and then exploits space. The undefeated Armadillos have an average margin of victory of 40.2 points this season and will need to put together a complete performance against their toughest opponent to date, New Deal, in order to reach their first state championship game in program history.

1. Amarillo Tascosa (141)

Tascosa may be the story of the year in Texas high school football as the Rebels have rebounded after graduating 38 seniors from last year’s squad that went (2-4) in district play. With so many seniors graduating and just three offensive starters returning, predictions indicated that this would be a rebuilding year. However, those predictions couldn’t have been more wrong as the young guns have stepped up in a big way. Perhaps the biggest additions to Ken Plunk’s flexbone offense have been running back King Doerue (1,321 rushing yards, 25 TD) and his son, quarterback Joseph Plunk (1,549 rushing yards, 21 TD). Doerue had just 473 rushing yards last season and Plunk was a newcomer to the varsity squad this season. The Rebels aren’t the beneficiary of an easier district compared to last year either — District 2-6A stayed the exact same in realignment. Tascosa had a fantastic year but made a big statement when they took down Arlington 35-24 in the second round of playoffs, and kept it rolling with an impressive 48-27 regional final win over another outstanding surprise team, Haltom. Longview will be the Rebels biggest challenge yet, but for now, the slipper still fits.