5A/4A Preview: Playoffs?
5A/4A Preview: Playoffs?
2012-11-09 09:00:00

With one last Friday night to go before the start of the regular season, DCTF takes you through every 5A and 4A district, breaking down the playoff scenarios along the way. 

 By Travis Stewart
 DCTF Managing Editor

Are you guys ready for the wildest night of the year?

Week 10 is always this way — hectic, furious, delightfully confusing. This is where we seperate the cream from the crop, and settle all but a small portion of our 2012 playoff picture. Below, we tackle every 5A/4A district in Texas, giving you all the outcomes along the way. So grab a notepad and a water bottle — we've got a lot to cover.

Clinched berths: EP Franklin (DI-1), EP Montwood (DII), EP Americas (DII), EP El Dorado (DI-2)
Tonight’s key games: EP Franklin at EP El Dorado
Everyone that’s getting a playoff berth in this district has one, and the only thing left up for grabs is seeds — Franklin took the top spot over El Dorado last night in DI, and Montwood and Americas play separate games tonight to settle DII. If both win, which is likely, Americas would take the top spot and sent Montwood up against Abilene in Round 1.

Clinched berths: Abilene (DII-1), Abilene Cooper (DII-2)
Still fighting: Midland Lee, Midland, San Angelo Central, Odessa Permian
Tonight’s key games: Midland at Abilene, San Angelo Central at Midland Lee

We’ve got four teams fighting for two spots here, and I honestly don’t know how it’s going to play out. Lee has the easiest claim to make — it’s in with a win over San Angelo Central tonight, even though it’s going to be without RB Jason McAfee, who’s going to have to sit with concussion-like symptoms.

This district is still very complicated and could even come down to coin flips if point differentials didn’t separate any three-way ties. But Permian’s win over Coronado last night, coupled with what’s expected to be a Midland loss to unbeaten Abilene tonight, means the winner of Lee and San Angelo Central advances. It’s as easy as that. I think I’ll actually take Central here.

Clinched berths: Arlington Bowie (DI-1), Arlington Martin (DI-2)
Still fighting: Arlington, Arlington Lamar, North Crowley
Tonight’s key games: Arlington Martin at Arlington Bowie, Arlington at North Crowley

Arlington Lamar beat FW Paschal last night, which means it all comes down to North Crowley and Arlington today — if Arlington somehow loses, it would create a three-way tie between the three teams. North Crowley would have to win that one by 21 points or more just to get to coin flips, and that is very unlikely. Expect Arlington to win and clinch both itself and Lamar.

Martin and Bowie faced off last night for the top DI seed and the undisputed district title — Bowie got the ball for their trophy case and, more importantly, a pass on Southlake Carroll in the first round. Martin now sees the reigning champs in the first round.  

Clinched berths: Southlake Carroll (DI-1), Justin Northwest (DII-1), Keller Central (DI-2)
Still fighting: Keller Fossil Ridge, Keller Timber Creek
Tonight’s key games: Keller Timber Creek at Fossil Ridge

It’s pretty easy here tonight — the winner of Timber Creek and Fossil Ridge is in the playoffs and set to face either Arlington or, possibly, Lamar. Southlake Carroll will see the loser of tonight’s Bowie/Martin game in the first round, and Keller Central will see the winner.

Clinched berths: Coppell (DI-1), Hebron (DII), FM Marcus
Still fighting: Denton Ryan, Flower Mound
Tonight’s key games: Denton Ryan at Flower Mound

Another easy one — Ryan and Flower Mound face-off in a win-and-in situation, with the winner making the playoffs and the loser watching from the couch. Coppell is locked into DI and likely to see Irving or Irving MacArthur.

Clinched berths: Euless Trinity (DI-1), Colleyville Heritage (DII)
Still fighting: Hurst L.D. Bell, Irving MacArthur, Irving
Tonight’s key games: Irving MacArthur at Irving, Colleyville Heritage at Hurst L.D. Bell

There’s still a ton of moving parts here, but suffice to say that both MacArthur and Bell could clinch playoff spots with wins tonight. MacArthur seems a safe bet to do so, but Bell could be in a spot of trouble against Colleyville Heritage QB Cody Thomas. Even if Colleyville Heritage loses, Irving would be eliminated if it can’t beat MacArthur. Right now, it looks like the best Irving could do would be to force a three-way tie, but even then it would have to beat MacArthur by more than 17 points to do it.

Clinched berths: DeSoto (DI-1), Midlothian (DII), Mansfield (DI-2), Cedar Hill (DII)
Tonight’s key games: Cedar Hill at Midlothian

With all four teams already in the playoffs and a district title locked away for DeSoto, the only key showdown goes to Cedar Hill and Midlothian, who play for the top DII seed and the right to avoid Hewitt Midway in the first round. The playoff picture in 7-5A is only murky because 8-5A is so exceedingly unsettled.

Clinched berths: Hewitt Midway (DII-1), Copperas Cove, Harker Heights (DI)
Still fighting: Killeen, Temple
Tonight’s key games: Harker Heights at Copperas Cove

Temple’s win over Killeen last night simplified things in this district, and now we have two clear-cut outcomes to discuss. One: Copperas Cove beats Harker Heights tonight. Cove and Heights both qualify, and Killeen advances on tiebreaks. Two: Harker Heights beats Copperas Cove. Cove and Heights both qualify, and Temple advances on tiebreaks. It’s all so simple now, huh? For the record, I like Cove.

Clinched berths: Dallas Skyline (DI-1), Lake Highlands (DII-1), Richardson (DI-2), Dallas Jesuit (DII-2)
The playoff teams are set, the seeds are set and the district title (Skyline) is set. Nothing to see here, folks.

Clinched berths: Allen (DI-1), Plano
Still fighting: Plano West, McKinney Boyd, Plano East, McKinney
Tonight’s key games: McKinney at McKinney Boyd, Plano East at Plano West

The playoff scenarios here are so intricate that they actually require their own story, but the best way to handicap it is that McKinney Boyd and Plano West are both in with wins. I do think Boyd will win, but I’m not so sure about West — especially with East QB Mario Smalls back in action. Here’s the rest of the stuff: http://highschoolsportsblog.dallasnews.com/2012/11/breaking-down-all-the-playoff-scenarios-in-district-10-5a-including-a-chance-for-a-five-way-tie.html/

Allen, which is the top team in DI in 10-5A, will see Richardson in the first round.

Clinched berths: Garland (DI-1), South Garland (DII-1)
Still fighting: Sachse, Lakeview Centennial, Rowlett, Naaman Forest
Tonight’s key games: Sachse at Naaman Forest, Rowlett at Lakeview Centennial

Since all four teams looking for playoff bids play each other tonight, this could be very simple. If Sachse wins, it qualifies and Naaman Forest is out. The Rowlett vs. Centennial game is a win-and-in, so that would give us our second qualifier.

It only gets messy if Sachse loses, because it sets up three-way ties. If Sachse loses and Rowlett wins, Naaman Forest needs a nine-point over Sachse to qualify with Rowlett. If it’s Lakeview Centennial over Rowlett, then Naaman only needs a win to get in.

Clinched berths: Mesquite (DI-1), Mesquite Horn
Still fighting: Longview, Rockwall-Heath, Rockwall
Tonight’s key games: Rockwall at Longview, Tyler Lee at Rockwall-Heath

Longview and Heath are both in with wins, and I think they’ll both get them. That would send both to DII, with Longview taking the top spot and Heath having to face South Garland in the first round.

Rockwall is the only fly in the ointment; if it wins, it will qualify with a Heath loss. That’s a long shot. Give me Longview and Heath in the postseason.

Clinched berths: Spring Westfield (DI-1), Klein Collins (DI-2), Spring Dekaney (DII-1), Klein (DII-2)
All the teams are set, all the seeds are set, and Westfield has already sealed up the district title. Move along!

Clinched berths: A&M Consolidated, Lufkin, The Woodlands
Still fighting: Conroe, The Woodlands College Park
Tonight’s key games: Conroe at Lufkin, College Park at Bryan

Conroe would be in with a win here against Lufkin — but I don’t think we’ll see that. College Park seems far more likely to win, which would put it in the playoffs if it can get Conroe and Oak Ridge to lose, too.  That seems like the most likely scenario, even if it does involve the most moving parts.

Clinched berths: Lake Travis (DII-1), Westlake (DII-2), Austin Bowie (DI-1), Austin Del Valle (DI-2)
Everything is all finished up here, thanks to Bowie and Del Valle’s season finale last night. Westlake will see Hendrickson in the first round, and Pflugerville will see Lake Travis. Bowie will see either Stony Point or Round Rock, and Del Valle has Westwood.

Clinched berths: Hendrickson (DII-1), Pflugerville (DII-2), Westwood (DI-1)
Still fighting: Round Rock, Stony Point
Tonight’s key games: Stony Point at Round Rock

There’s one spot left for grabs here, and DCTF will have a next-door neighbor approach to the night as we set up shop for Fox Football Friday (7-11 PM, Fox Sports College) at Westwood-Pflugerville. Feel free to say hello.

The key game is Stony Point at Round Rock, where Round Rock can clinch the fourth spot with a win. If Stony Point wins, it’ll clinch the spot as long as Cedar Ridge loses to McNeil. We could end up with a three-way tie if Stony Point and Cedar Ridge both win — then all three teams would be at 2-4 in district. In that case, Stony Point needs to beat Round Rock by 11 points or more to qualify. Cedar Ridge should beat McNeil, which means Stony Point needs to put together its best game of the year, by a long shot.

Clinched berths: Langham Creek (DII), Cy Falls (DI), Cy Ranch (DII)
Still fighting: Cy-Fair, Cy Creek
Tonight’s key games: Cy-Fair at Cy Creek

What’s typically a confusing district is easy this time out — the winner of Cy-Fair and Cy Creek gets the fourth and final playoff spot and will likely take the bottom DI seed. Ranch can clinch the top DII seed with a win against Cy Falls, but that’ll be tough. Langham Creek can take it instead if Ranch loses, as it should be able to down Cy Lakes this weekend.

Clinched berths: Alief Elsik (DI), Alief Taylor, Aldine Nimitz (DII)
Still fighting: Eisenhower, Aldine
Tonight’s key games: Aldine at Eisenhower

The winner of Aldine and Eisenhower clinches the fourth and final playoff bid; if that’s Aldine, Aldine goes DI and sends Taylor down to DII (where Taylor would be the top seed and Nimitz the bottom). If it’s Eisenhower that qualifies — and I think it will be — Eisenhower would go DII with Nimitz, and Taylor would likely take the top DI seed over Elsik.

Clinched berths: Katy (DII), Houston Memorial (DII), Katy Cinco Ranch (DI)
Still fighting: Katy Seven Lakes, Katy Morton Ranch
Tonight’s key games: Katy Seven Lakes at Katy Morton Ranch, Katy at Houston Memorial

The winner of Seven Lakes-Morton Ranch takes the fourth and final playoff spot, as well as DI seed alongside Cinco Ranch. I’m leaning towards Seven Lakes.

Katy and Memorial face off for the district title and the top DII seed, though Katy is a heavy favorite and looks to be rolling towards a state title game.

Clinched berths: Houston Lamar (DI-1), Houston Westside (DII-1), Houston Westbury (DII-2), Houston Bellaire (DI-2)
Bellaire’s win last night cinched up the district, through matchups are still TBA while 19-5A sorts out its business.

Clinched berths: La Porte (DII), North Shore (DI), PA Memorial (II), Deer Park (DI)
Tonight’s key games: La Porte at PA Memorial, Deer Park at North Shore

With all of the teams already clinched, the only thing up for grabs is seeding — winners take the top seeds, losers take the bottom. That’s big in both divisions, as the winners likely get to avoid Manvel (DII) and Pearland (DI) in the first round. One last note — if La Porte beats Memorial, it wins the outright district title. If it loses, we’re likely looking at a three-way tie for first (La Porte, Memorial, North Shore).

Clinched berths: Manvel (DII-1), Pearland (DI)
Still fighting: Pasadena Memorial, Pasadena Dobie, Alvin
Tonight’s key games: Alvin at Pasadena Memorial

If Alvin loses at Memorial, which I think it will, Memorial and Dobie clinch and the drama ends right there. But if it wins, it actually clinches a spot, leaving Memorial and Dobie head to head — and battle Memorial would win.   

Clinched berths: FB Bush (DII), FB Travis, FB Austin (DI)
Still fighting: FB Hightower, FB Dulles, FB Elkins
Tonight’s key games: Bush at Hightower, Travis at Dulles

It’s pretty remarkable that the top three teams in district play the three teams fighting for the final spot this weekend — talk about high drama. Here’s the Houston Chronicle’s breakdown of this set-up, which is very succinct:

“Fort Bend Austin, Bush and Travis are in. Hightower gets in with a win, a Dulles win and an Elkins loss. Hightower also gets in if a three-way tie remains among Hightower, Dulles and Elkins. Dulles gets in with a win, an Elkins win and a Hightower loss. Elkins gets in with a win, a Hightower win and a Dulles loss.”

Simple, right? I think all three teams will lose, actually, which would send Hightower to the fourth spot.

Clinched berths: Clear Springs (DI-1), Clear Creek (DII), Brazoswood (DII), Clear Brook (DI-2)
Tonight’s key games: Clear Springs at Clear Creek, Brazoswood at Clear Brook

The four playoff bids are already set, meaning just the seeding (in DII) and district title are still alive. Clear Springs can clinch the district title with a win at Clear Creek, and a Clear Creek win would make it a shared title. In seeding, Brazoswood clinches the top DII spot with a win, and loses it with a loss and Clear Creek win. The teams in 23-5A are so balanced that I’m not sure it matters, though.

Clinched berths: Smithson Valley (DII-1), Converse Judson (DI), SA Wagner (DI), New Braunfels (DII-2)
Tonight’s key games: New Braunfels at Judson

The playoff teams are set, and Smithson Valley should clinch the district title with a win against Wagner tonight. That just leaves the DI seeds up for grabs, something Judson can take the top spot in with a win or a Wagner loss. I think we’ll see both, meaning Wagner would draw SA Madison in the first round.

Clinched berths: SA Madison (DI-1), SA Reagan, SA Roosevelt (DII)
Still fighting: SA Johnson, SA Churchill
Tonight’s key games: SA Lee at SA Churchill, SA Madison at SA Johnson, SA Reagan at SA Roosevelt

Churchill clinches the fourth and final playoff spot with a win, which it should get against Lee. Johnson has to get a win (against Madison – ouch) and a Churchill loss to sneak in, and that seems very unlikely. So Churchill will probably be the fourth team in and take the second DI seed, making the Reagan-Roosevelt affair a DII seeding showdown. Loser gets Smithson Valley, which is not a good thing.

Clinched berths: SA Brandeis (DII-1), SA O’Connor (DI-1)
Still fighting: SA Jay, SA Warren, SA Holmes, SA Marshall, SA Clark
Tonight’s key games: SA Holmes at SA Brandeis, SA Warren at SA Clark, SA Marshall at SA Jay

This, along with 10-5A and 31-5A, is the most confusing district in the class. The SA Express-News said it best, so here’s the link.

In short, I think Jay, Clark and Brandeis will win, sealing up bids for Jay and Clark. Jay would be the bottom DI seed, and Clark would be the bottom DII seed (and see Cibolo Steele). Easy, huh? Yeah, right.

Clinched berths: Cibolo Steele (DII-1), SA East Central (DI-1), SA Southwest (DI-2), CC King (DII-2)
Tonight’s key games: Southwest at Steele

With all four teams in the playoffs already, the only thing up for grabs is a district title (which Steele should win). East Central clinched the top DI seed last night. Southwest now has the second spot and will play O’Connor next week.

Clinched berths: Del Rio (DII-1), Laredo Alexander (DI), Eagle Pass (DII-2), Laredo United (DI)
Tonight’s key games: Laredo United at Laredo Alexander

The postseason bids are set and Del Rio has wrapped up the district title, so the DI seeds are all that’s left to determine. This is an easy one — those two teams, Alexander and United, play tonight to give us a top and bottom squad. Loser plays Sharyland in the first round, winner sees Donna. Not very forgiving either way.

Clinched berths: Mission Sharyland (DI-1), Donna (DI-2), Edinburg North (DII-1)
Still fighting: Juarez-Lincoln, Edinburg Economedes
Tonight’s key games: Economedes at Palmview, Juarez-Lincoln at Donna

The fourth spot falls to either Economedes and Juarez-Lincoln, with J-L needing just a win to clinch things and take the bottom DII seed. Economedes needs a win and a Juarez-Lincoln loss, and that’s what I think we’ll see — Donna is a heavy favorite over L-J and Economedes should beat Palmview. Regardless of who qualifies there, they’ll see Del Rio in the first round.

Clinched berths: Weslaco East (DII-1)
Still fighting: Weslaco, McAllen, McAllen Memorial, McAllen Rowe, PSJA North, San Benito
Tonight’s key games: Weslaco at San Benito, McAllen Rowe vs. Weslaco East, McAllen Memorial at PSJA, PSJA Memorial at McAllen

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a district like this before, where six teams are fighting for three bids in the final week. Here’s the run down:

Weslaco: Needs a win vs. San Benito

McAllen: Needs a win and Rowe and McAllen Memorial losses

McAllen Memorial: Needs a win and a Weslaco win (seems likely)

McAllen Rowe: Needs a win and McAllen and Memorial losses (not likely)

PSJA North: Off this week; needs a McAllen Memorial loss and either a Rowe or McAllen loss

San Benito: Needs a win and losses from pretty much everyone else

There’s a million three-way tie scenarios in there. It would take a long, long time to break them down, so fans, pray for those outcomes and you should be OK.

Clinched berths: Los Fresnos (DI), Harlingen South (DII-1), Harlingen (DI), Brownsville Veterans Memorial (DII-2)
Tonight’s key games: Los Fresnos at Harlingen South

The only thing up for grabs is the district title and the DI seeds, two things that are only augmented if Los Fresnos loses — if it wins, it takes the top DI seed and 32-5A crown, easy as that. But if it loses and Harlingen wins, then Harlingen would actually take both. Crazy. I think Los Fresnos will win, however.

Class 4A

Clinched berths: EP Chapin (DI-1), EP Burges (DII-1), EP Andress (DI-2), EP Bowie (DII-2)
Everything is done here — even the district title (Chapin). Chapin sees Hanks in the first round, and Andress has Del Valle. The DII spots are in flux in 2-4A.

Clinched berths: EP Del Valle (DI-1), EP Hanks (DI-2), Clint Horizon (DII), Canutillo (DII)
Tonight’s key games: Canutillo at Del Valle, Ysleta at Horizon

The only thing left to determine is the DII seeding, something Horizon can clinch the top spot in with a win over Ysleta. That’s likely to happen, and would give Horizon a date with Bowie and Canutillo a date with Burges. Canutillo could only steal the top DII seed with a win and a Horizon loss. I wouldn’t hold my breath on that.

Clinched berths: Amarillo (DI-1), Canyon Randall (DII-1), Canyon (DII-2), Amarillo Palo Duro (DI-2)
We’re all done here. Amarillo has the district title and a date with either Lubbock or Monterey, with Palo Duro seeing the one left over. Randall draws Hereford and Canyon gets mighty Wolfforth Frenship.

Clinched berths: Wolfforth Frenship (DII-1), Hereford (DII-2), Lubbock Monterey (DI), Lubbock (DI)
Tonight’s key games: Lubbock Monterey at Lubbock

The only thing left to discuss is the DI seeds, something Monterey and Lubbock will determine when they play each other tonight. Loser gets Amarillo in the first round — yuck.

Clinched berths: Denton Guyer (DI-1), WF Rider (DII-1)
Still fighting: Azle, Byron Nelson, Lake Dallas
Tonight’s key games: Lake Dallas at Azle, Nelson at Denton

Tonight could be easy here — Azle clinches with a win over Lake Dallas, and as long as Nelson won, too, both teams would qualify. But it’s the Azle-Lake Dallas game that could screw everything up; if Lake Dallas wins and Nelson wins, we’d be stuck in a three-way tie, and it would go to point differential. Here’s the Dallas Morning News’ breakdown of that situation:

“If Byron Nelson and Lake Dallas win, there will be a three-way tie between those schools and Azle. In this district, once it goes to points, it stays at points. If Lake Dallas beats Azle by 12 or more points, Lake Dallas and Byron Nelson are in. If Lake Dallas beats Azle by 5 points or less, Azle and Byron Nelson are in. If Lake Dallas beats Azle by 6 to 11 points, Azle and Lake Dallas advance.”

The bummer is that I think that’s exactly what we’ll see, which means math headaches. Give me Lake Dallas in a 7-point win, clinching Lake Dallas and Azle.

Clinched berths: Birdville (DI-1), Boswell (DII-1), Saginaw (DI-2), FW Dunbar (DII-2)
Everything is wrapped up here, though 5-4A’s uncertainly leaves the first-round matchups in flux. What we do know is that Saginaw will see Guyer in Round One, whereas Dunbar will draw Rider.

Clinched berths: Aledo, FW Southwest (DII), Granbury (DI)
Still fighting: FW Wyatt, FW Western Hills, FW Arlington Heights, FW South Hills
Tonight’s key games: Western Hills at Wyatt, Granbury at Arlington Heights

Well, it’s still a mess for the fourth spot out here, but Wyatt can wrap it up (and send Aledo to DI) with a win over Western Hills tonight, something I think we’ll see. The thing that could send everything screwy would be a Western Hills win — as long as Arlington Heights and South Hills both lose (which should happen), then Western Hills clinches. Anything else puts us in a three-way tie.

But more than likely, Western Hills-Wyatt is a win-and-in. Either way, it would send Aledo to the DI bracket, where it would likely see Cleburne in the first round.

Clinched berths: Crowley (DI-1), Cleburne (DI-2), Waco (DII), Everman (DII)
Tonight’s key games: Waco at Everman

Waco and Everman play tonight to settle the DII seeds, and there’s a small chance the loser could see three-time defending champ Aledo in the first round. More than likely, though, the loser will get FW Southwest. All the other first round games are up in the air until 7-4A settles down.

Clinched berths: Frisco Centennial (DI-1), Prosper (II), Frisco
Still fighting: Frisco Wakeland, Little Elm, The Colony
Tonight’s key games: Frisco at Prosper, Little Elm at The Colony

With only one spot left for grabs, Little Elm has the best shot at it — if it wins, which I think it will, it will take the final playoff spot, and that’s the end of things. Wakeland’s only shot is to beat Liberty (which it should) and get a loss out of Little Elm. The Colony’s only shot — and it’s still a long one — is to beat Little Elm and get a Wakeland loss.

More than likely, we’re going to see Little Elm or Wakeland in. If it’s Little Elm, Frisco would go DI and take the second spot behind Centennial (and consequently see Highland Park in the first round). If Wakeland qualifies, Frisco would go DII, and the winner of Frisco-Prosper would take the top DII seed and the loser the bottom.

Clinched berths: Highland Park (DI-1), Mesquite Poteet (DII), West Mesquite (DI), Forney (DII)
Still fighting: Forney, Carrollton Newman Smith
Tonight’s key games: Forney at Newman Smith, Mesquite Poteet at West Mesquite

The winner of Forney and Newman Smith (I think it’s Smith) takes the fourth and final playoff spot — if it is Smith, then Smith goes DI and sends West Mesquite down to DII. The winner of West Mesquite-Poteet tonight would be the top DII seed.

If it’s Forney that wins and qualifies, it would do DII and send West Mesquite up to DI, where it would be the second seed behind Highland Park.

Clinched berths: Dallas South Oak Cliff, Dallas Kimball (DI), Dallas Carter (DII)
Still fighting: Dallas Seagoville, Dallas Adamson, North Dallas
Tonight’s key games: Adamson at Pinkston, Carter at Seagoville, Molina at North Dallas

Easy stuff — if Seagoville wins or Adamson loses, Seagoville qualifies for the fourth playoff spot. If Adamson wins AND Seagoville loses (which I think is likely), Adamson takes the final spot. The only way North Dallas could win is an Adamson win, Seagoville loss and North Dallas win. It’s a long shot, but it could happen, snapping North Dallas’ 50-year playoff drought.

If it is Adamson that qualifies, South Oak Cliff would drop to DII. If it’s Seagoville, South Oak Cliff is up to DI.

Clinched berths: Dallas Lincoln (DII-1), Dallas Samuell (DI-1), Dallas Adams (DI-2)
Still fighting: Dallas Hillcrest, Dallas Wilson
Tonight’s key games: Hillcrest at Wilson

The winner between Hillcrest and Wilson is in and will take the bottom DII spot in the playoffs. Adams and Samuell still have to settle the DI seed, but Samuell only needs a win over Dallas Jefferson to clinch it. Expect that to happen.

Clinched berths: Lucas Lovejoy (DII), Sherman (DI-1), Wylie East (DII), Wylie (DI-2)
Tonight’s key games: Wylie East at Lucas Lovejoy

The only things left to settle are the district title and DII seeds, and Lovejoy controls both at home tonight — if it beats Wylie East, it clinches the title and top seed. If it loses, Wylie East takes the top seed (avoiding Sulphur Springs) and forces a three-way tie for the district title (with Sherman).

Clinched berths: Sulphur Springs (DII-1), Mount Pleasant (DI-1), Hallsville (DII-2), Texas High (DI-2)
Nothing to report here — Sulphur Springs will play the loser of Wylie East-Lovejoy in the first round, and Hallsville will play the winner. Mount Pleasant draws Wylie next week, and Texas High has Sherman.

Clinched berths: Lancaster, Ennis (DII), Red Oak (DI)
Still fighting: Waxahachie, Mansfield Summit, Arlington Seguin
Tonight’s key games: Arlington Seguin at Red Oak, Waxahachie at Ennis, Lancaster at Mansfield Summit

The district’s top three teams are facing the three teams on the bubble, and Waxahachie has the easiest route — a win over rival Ennis would put it in the postseason (losses by Summit and Seguin would do the same). Summit could get it if it can beat Lancaster and get a Waxahachie loss (unlikely), and Seguin could still sneak by if it beats Red Oak and Summit/Waxahachie both lose.

I think Waxahachie will win, though, sending Lancaster down to DII, where it would take the top seed over Ennis and dodge Whitehouse in the first round.

Clinched berths: Whitehouse (DII-1), John Tyler (DI-1), Jacksonville (DII-2), Corsicana (DI-2)
Tonight’s key games: Whitehouse at John Tyler

It means nothing as far as playoff implications go, but Whitehouse (9-0) and John Tyler’s (8-1) showdown for the 16-4A district title has everyone out East in a tizzy. Whitehouse QB Pat Mahomes? Yes, please. John Tyler QB Greg Ward? Yes, please. Arguably the two best signal-callers — and maybe the two best offenses and teams in general — going head-to-head in Week 10? Absolutely! I’ll take Tyler by a nose, but bring a seatbelt if you’re headed out that way. Things are going to be moving fast on that field.

Clinched berths: Georgetown (DI-1), Pflugerville Connally (DI-2), Manor (DII-1), Elgin (DII-2)
There’s nothing here of note, as the district title is already sewn up (Georgetown) and the playoff seeds are all set. Elgin will see Brenham in the first round, and Connally gets Montgomery.

Clinched berths: Brenham (DII-1), Montgomery (DI-1), Huntsville
Still fighting: Magnolia West, Waller
Tonight’s key games: Waller at Magnolia West

The winner of West-Waller takes the fourth and final playoff spot from 18-4A, but the division breakdown could swing either way — if Waller qualifies, it sends Huntsville to DI against Georgetown, but if West qualifies, it sends Huntsville to DII against Manor.

Clinched berths: Summer Creek (DI), Dayton (DI), Crosby (DII-1), Barbers Hill (DII-2)
Tonight’s key games: Summer Creek at Dayton

Summer Creek vs. Dayton — the only battle of unbeatens (both 9-0) in the public school ranks this week — will settle more than just a hotly pursued district title. It’ll also settle the order of the DI seeds; the loser will draw Nederland in the first round, while the loser will get someone a little more manageable. As far as the game goes, however, Dayton’s defense will be sorely tested against Summer Creek QB Aaron Sharp. I’ll take Dayton, but if Sharp gets loose, watch out. He’s a prime-time talent.

Clinched berths: Nederland (DI-1), Vidor (DII-1), Livingston
Still fighting: Little Cypress-Mauriceville, Beaumont Central, Beaumont Ozen
Tonight’s key games: Beaumont Central at Nederland, Lumberton at Beaumont Ozen, Vidor at Little Cypress-Mauriceville

A win by either LC-M or Central would knock Ozen out of this race, but incredibly, I think Ozen will end up qualifying with a win over the last-place team in district and losses by the other two teams to the top two squads in the district. Incredible.

That said, Central can clinch a spot with a win. LC-M would need a win and a Central loss. But either school would have to score a pretty big upset to get it done, and I’m just not sure that’s in the cards. If it is Ozen that qualifies, Livingston would take the bottom DII seed and see Crosby, and Ozen would take the bottom DI seed and draw the winner of Summer Creek/Dayton in 19-4A.

Clinched berths: Houston North Forest, Houston Reagan (DI), Houston Sharpstown (DII)
Still fighting: Houston Wheatley, Houston Milby, Houston Waltrip
Tonight’s key games: Milby at Waltrip, North Forest at Wheatley

Once again, this is an awkward three-way tie scenario, perhaps. I’ll let the Houston Chronicle tell the tale:  

“Milby gets in with a win. Milby also gets in with a loss by one or two points if Wheatley loses by any amount.

Wheatley gets in with a win and a Milby loss or if it loses and Waltrip beats Milby by between three and 14 points.

Waltrip gets in if it wins by at least 15 points and Wheatley losses by any amount.”

The biggest moving part is North Forest, which is still awaiting its division — if Waltrip or Milby qualify, North Forest goes to DII. Only if Wheatley qualifies does North Forest move up to DI. For the record, I do think it’ll be Wheatley that advances, which would likely pit North Forest up against Tomball in the first round.

Clinched berths: FB Marshall (DII-1), Houston Stratford (DI-1), FB Ridge Point (DII-2), Tomball (DI-2)
Nothing to see here — everything is set and done. The only thing up in the air is the seeds over in 21-4A, which are preventing us from setting the matchups right now.

Clinched berths: Angleton (DI-1), Rosenberg Terry (DII-1), Richmond Foster (DI-2), Lamar Consolidated (DII-2)
Angleton’s win over Terry last night clinched the top DI seed, meaning everything is now set in 23-4A. Angleton will face Friendswood in round one, and Foster will get Pearland Dawson. Terry sees Goose Creek Memorial, and Lamar Consolidated has Texas City.

Clinched berths: Pearland Dawson (DI-1), Texas City (DII-1), Friendswood (DI-2), Goose Creek (DII-2)
Tonight’s key games: Santa Fe at Goose Creek Memorial, Galena Park at Pearland Dawson

Goose Creek Memorial’s win over Santa Fe last night clinched its spot in the postseason, and as the DII-2 seed, too. It will now see Rosenberg Terry in the first round.

Clinched berths: Cedar Park, Leander (DI), Vista Ridge (DII)
Still fighting: Vandegrift, Rouse
Tonight’s key games: Rouse at Vista Ridge

There’s only one result to analyze here, and it’s what Rouse does with Vista Ridge — anything other than a 7+ point win over Vista Ridge will eliminate Rouse and clinch Vandegrift, who is idle this week. If Vandegrift does make it, Cedar Park jumps to the top DI seed (and will see LBJ), and Leander then draws McCallum. Vista Ridge would take the top DII spot and get Crockett, and Vandegrift would be left with Travis.

If Rouse does hit that point spread, however, it moves to DI and pushes Cedar Park down to DII. That’s a pretty big shift of power in Region IV, so area teams will watch that result closely.

Clinched berths: Austin McCallum (DI-1), Austin LBJ (DI-2), Austin Travis (DII-1), Austin Crockett (DII-2)
Nothing to see here, folks — everything is done, including the district title (McCallum). The only thing left to settle is the first-round matchups, and we need a cleared 25-4A for that.

Clinched berths: Alamo Heights, Buda Hays (DI), Kerrville Tivy (DII)
Still fighting: Lockhart, Seguin, Boerne Champion
Tonight’s key games: Seguin at Boerne Champion, Buda Hays at Alamo Heights, Lockhart at Kerrville Tivy

The easiest way to settle this would be with a Seguin win over Boerne Champion — that would put Seguin in the playoffs, push Alamo Heights down to DII, and leave Lockhart and Champion on the outside. But that result is not assured, and we have two different scenarios if Seguin loses.

1)   Seguin loses and Lockhart wins. Lockhart clinches the fourth spot (sending Alamo Heights to DI).

2)   Seguin loses by 10 or more points and Lockhart loses. Champion clinches the fourth spot and pushes Alamo Heights to DI.

I like Seguin to win, though, even on the road, and finish this district up in a hurry.

Clinched berths: SA Brennan, SA Jefferson, SA Brackenridge (DI)
Still fighting: SA Edison, SA Highlands
Tonight’s key games: Jefferson at Edison, Highlands at Brackenridge

Most of Region IV in Class 4A is kind of a mess, and this district is only slightly better than the norm. In short, Highlands has the tiebreak over Edison, so a Highlands win or an Edison loss would clinch Highlands’ berth. The bummer is that I can’t see either thing happening; Highlands is an underdog at Brackenridge, and I like Edison over Jefferson, too. That would send Brennan, one of San Antonio’s best, up to DI. 

Clinched berths: Medina Valley (DII), Floresville (DII), SA Harlandale (DI)
Still fighting: SA Southside, Uvalde, SA McCollum
Tonight’s key games: Medina Valley at Uvalde, Southside at Floresville, Harlandale at McCollum

Now here’s a messy district for you — three teams battling for one spot, all on the last Friday of the season. Uvalde has the best scenario — it’s in with a win — but perhaps the toughest game, against district-leading Medina Valley. I don’t like their odds. Southside could get in with a win if Uvalde loses, but I don’t think Southside will beat Floresville, either. That just leaves McCollum, who isn’t going to be favored over Harlandale, either — it would have to win, get losses out of the other and get a loss out of Kennedy to survive. And if all three of them lose, Uvalde would win out on tiebreak. I think that’s actually what will happen. It’s definitely moving backwards to move forwards, but it would still count.

Clinched berths: PL Calhoun (DII-1), Calallen
Still fighting: Gregory-Portland, Victoria West, Victoria East, CC Tuloso-Midway
Tonight’s key games: Victoria East at Calallen, Victoria West at Gregory-Portland

Another Region IV district, another train wreck — four teams for two bids. Gregory-Portland just needs a win to get in, or a Victoria East loss. I actually think both will happen. But still, here’s the scenarios:

-       G-P: Gets in with a win or a Victoria East loss.

-       Victoria West: Gets in with a win and Victoria East.

-       Victoria East: Gets in with a win, Victoria West loss and Tuloso-Midway loss.

-       Tuloso-Midway: Forces tie with a win and Victoria East and West loss.

Remember — I do think East and West lose, and Tuloso-Midway should win. That would leave all three teams locked up for the fourth spot. Tiebreaks would have to settle it.

Clinched berths: CC Flour Bluff, CC Ray (DI), Alice (DII)
Still fighting: Laredo Nixon, CC Miller, Laredo Martin
Tonight’s key games: Martin at Alice, Flour Bluff at Nixon, Miller at Ray

A Laredo Nixon win over Flour Bluff would send Nixon to the fourth and final playoff spot, but we’re not likely to see that — Flour Bluff is unbeaten, after all. If CC Miller were to beat Ray and Martin were to fall to Alice with that Nixon loss, Miller would qualify. But honestly? I think all three will lose, and that would send Nixon to the postseason after ending the year a game up on the other two.

Clinched berths: Mission (DI-1), Edcouch-Elsa (DII), Mercedes (DII), Mission Memorial (DI-2)
Mercedes beat Mission last night, and Edcouch-Elsa has a chance to take the top DII spot with a win tonight.

Travis Stewart is the managing editor of Dave Campbell's Texas Football and TexasFootball.com.

He can be reached via e-mail, via Twitter (@dctf) and via the DCTF Facebook page.

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