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Capturing RG3

Fri, 27 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0600

By Greg Tepper // TexasFootball.com

The secret is out.

Yesterday, on TexasFootball.com, we revealed the cover of the 2012 Winter Edition of Dave Campbell's Texas Football magazine, which is available in the TexasFootball.com Store right now. The coverboy is Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III, and I can't say there was much debate as to the choice: as one of just seven Texas college players to win the Heisman Trophy, he's established himself among the true legends of Texas football.

But the cover image -- which you can see here if you missed it -- is only part of the story. Today, we'll let you take a peek behind the scenes of our photo shoot with Robert Griffin III.

The crew assembled in Waco on the morning of December 21st at the beautiful Simpson Athletics and Academic Center on the campus of Baylor University. Included in the group: DCTF executive director Adam Hochfelder, DCTF managing editor Travis Stewart, photographer Diana Porter and her crew, and myself. We were soon ushered upstairs to one of the meeting rooms, where we set about turning the room -- usually for position meetings and occasional team meals -- into a photo studio.

After we had set up the room, in rolled a steel box, complete with lock and key, being transported on a dolly by a member of the Baylor athletic department. He cracked open the box and, sure enough, there was the familiar silhouette of the Heisman Trophy.

From here, I'll let the pictures tell most of the tale.

Managing editor Travis Stewart played the role of RGIII before the man himself arrived.

Sure enough, the Heisman Trust spelled RGIII's name correctly on his trophy, which weighs almost 50 pounds.

After we had the shots we wanted set up, in came the man himself -- Robert Griffin III -- and after some brief introductions, our photographer Diana got straight to work.

We tried a variety of different poses and angles with Griffin, who was very open to our requests.

One of the key things we wanted in this image was the Robert Griffin III smile; we felt that one of the things that made Griffin so recognizable was his big smile, and though it goes against the common wisdom of the "tough guy" look for football players, we wanted that to play prominently on the cover.

And for those who are wondering: Robert Griffin III is an exceptionally polite young man. It was "sir" and "ma'am" all the way with everyone.

And that includes, of course, the man himself...

Our esteemed editor-in-chief and founder Dave Campbell came by during the middle of the photo shoot, and we couldn't resist getting a few photos of two Texas legends together.

After the shoot -- which lasted about 20 minutes -- we had a brief opportunity to chat with Griffin, and our managing editor couldn't help asking him about his days at Copperas Cove.

And, of course, our editor-in-chief had plenty of questions for the Heisman Trophy winner, but he saved many of them for their exclusive interview a couple of days later, which was the foundation for Mr. Campbell's cover story feature in the Winter Edition.

So there you have it! A special thanks to the entire Baylor athletic department, to photographer Diana Porter and her crew, and to Robert Griffin III for helping to compose a striking image that is now truly part of history.

Dissecting the defenses

Sun, 15 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0600

By Greg Tepper // TexasFootball.com

The joke was on our fair state as early as the first week of the college football season, when Baylor outlasted TCU in a wild 50-48 shootout: there’s no D in Texas.

Grammar jokes aside, it was sadly true in 2011: the Lone Star State seemed to harbor some of the nation’s worst defensive units. In fact, if you’re judging solely by the points allowed per game metric, five of the ten teams from Texas ranked 70^th or worse in the nation, including two – Baylor and Texas Tech – in the bottom seven teams in the nation.

But…were the defenses really all that bad? How much do you have to chalk up to the caliber of offenses that these teams were facing? After all, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor and Texas Tech had to deal with a brutal Big XII schedule, one of the nation’s best offensive conferences, while teams like TCU had to face teams like SMU, Baylor, Boise State, and so on.

So, were the defenses in the Lone Star State really that bad? Let’s take a look using some deeper analytics and see what the real deal is.

For this study – like we did with our bowl game previews -- we'll rely on Football Outsiders' the S&P+ Ratings, a Football Outsiders-derived statistic that seeks to measure and normalize (according to strength of schedule) each facet of both sides of the ball. I encourage you to read all about what goes into the statistic – it’s really fascinating, and in-depth, and multi-faceted – but for the “too long, didn’t read” crowd: a “100” rating is exactly average, and how far from that “100” baseline represents how much above or below average that particular unit is. For example, the Baylor offense’s Passing S&P+ is 154.7 (good enough for third in the nation), meaning that when Baylor passes the ball, it is ~1.5 times as effective as the average collegiate passing offense. But for this study, we’ll only be using the defensive S&P+ Ratings.

Here’s what we find:

Team	Overall D S&P+ (Rank)	Rush D S&P+ (Rank)	Pass D S&P+ (Rank)
Texas	136.2 (4)	151.5 (3)	138.6 (8)
Texas A&M	119.3 (18)	128.6 (15)	121.4 (21)
TCU	113.5 (28)	142.4 (7)	95.2 (75)
SMU	112.5 (31)	112.5 (30)	113.8 (27)
Houston	100.3 (63)	94.1 (84)	95.8 (73)
Baylor	92.7 (83)	99.8 (62)	90.3 (91)
UTEP	90.2 (87)	86.1 (104)	94.9 (76)
Rice	90.2 (88)	93.1 (87)	96.3 (70)
North Texas	87.5 (97)	92.5 (90)	84.5 (100)
Texas Tech	83.3 (110)	92.3 (91)	82.0 (104)

Some scattershooting thoughts on all of this data, as it’s kind of hard to digest all of that data in bulk:

-Well, on a whole, perception matches up with reality: half of the teams in the state were below average defensively. Texas Tech’s defense was among the worst in the nation, but let’s not forget that Texas fielded one of the nation’s best defenses. It was really a mixed bag, to be perfectly frank: a truly elite defensive team, another couple pretty-good defensive teams, a few average teams, some pretty bad teams, and one or two terrible defensive units.

-The best defensive unit in the state: Texas’ pass defense (third-best in the nation). The worst defensive unit in the state: Texas Tech’s pass defense (104^th in the nation).

-The team that is helped the most by analyzing the defense this way has to be Texas A&M. If you look at scoring defense, the Aggies are pretty bad, ranking 70^th in the nation. But the S&P+ Ratings look a lot kinder on A&M, taking into account their difficult strength of schedule and what really was a stout defensive unit for most of the season (save some second-half collapses).

-Can’t say it enough: Texas’ defense was absolutely amazing. Say what you want about the Longhorns this season – their offense was abysmal most of the time, and they definitely should have been better – but you can’t blame any of that on Manny Diaz and the Horns defense. They were sensational.

-What a weird situation for TCU this season. An outstanding rush defense – top ten in the nation – yet a terrible pass defense – 75^th in the nation. In short, if you could pass, you could beat TCU – you know, like SMU and Baylor did. Yet they did enough to beat one of the best passing teams in the nation in Boise State. Bizarre.

-SMU’s defense: quietly pretty good. We didn’t talk about the Ponies defense in those terms during the season, but it’s obvious that the defense we saw in the BBVA Compass Bowl was a microcosm of the Mustangs’ defensive efforts all season, not an aberration.

-Isn’t the fact that Baylor’s defense was so bad, yet they won nine games, proof that Robert Griffin III absolutely deserved the Heisman?

-More than anything, teams with bad defenses had trouble stopping the run first and foremost. Look at UTEP’s run defense, ranking 104^th in the nation. And in a conference like Conference USA, which will always have a strong running team or five, that’s a recipe for bad news.

So, in conclusion: is there a D in Texas? Well, on the whole, no, the Lone Star State was not great defensively. But with Texas, A&M, TCU and SMU leading the way, there were at least a few pretty good defensive units to hang the state’s hat on.

Coordinator carousel

Wed, 11 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0600

By Greg Tepper // TexasFootball.com

The head coach of a football team is understandably the face – for better or worse – of that program. He’s the one who answers the media’s questions, decides in-game strategy and has ultimate say over basically every decision that goes on with the team.

Yet sometimes…I think we focus too much on the head coach. After all, that head coach has coordinators, and those coordinators are the commanding officers of their respective units, both answering to General Head Coach.

The offensive and defensive coordinators are as important to a team’s success as the head coach, as they form a coaching triumvirate that essentially determined the entire direction of the football team.

That’s why coordinator changes – firings and hirings – intrigue me, as they can sometimes subtly indicate a change in a team’s direction.

Recently, the college landscape across Texas saw a number of coordinators come and go, leaving us with one overarching question: just who are these guys?

We’ll start at Texas A&M, where the season of change continues in earnest. New head coach Kevin Sumlin confirmed on Monday that the Aggies have hired a new offensive coordinator – Houston OC Kliff Kingsbury – and a new defensive coordinator – South Florida DC Mark Snyder.

Kingsbury is a name that football fans in the Lone Star State should recognize, for a number of reasons. As a player, Kingsbury was the first true standout of the Mike Leach Air Raid offense at Texas Tech, a Sammy Baugh Award winner who threw for 12,423 yards and 95 touchdowns in three years as a starter from 2000-2002. But since then, Kingsbury has established himself as one of the hot new coordinators in the nation, co-coordinating the high-flying Houston offense with former Houston receiver Jason Phillips in 2010 and 2011. And while 2010 was a wash due to the injury to star QB Case Keenum, you should know all about the Houston offense in 2011, which led the nation in total offense at 599.1 yards per game this season. The question is, will that spread offense translate to the hard-hitting SEC West, a division that just produced two of the nation’s super-elite defenses? Let’s put it this way: if the spread is ever going to work in the SEC, Kingsbury is one of the foremost minds in the craft.

Snyder may not be as recognizable around these parts, but his resume is certainly lengthy and, at times, impressive. Snyder comes from South Florida, but he got his first big break in coaching at Ohio State, where he coordinated a defense that produced guys like A.J. Hawk and Matt Wilhelm en route to a national championship in 2002. From there, Snyder got his first – and only -- head coaching job, at his alma mater Marshall. Things didn’t go well with the Thundering Herd, and Snyder resigned after posting a 22-37 record over five seasons. He was quickly scooped up to coordinate coach Skip Holtz's defense at South Florida, and things have gone pretty well there, using his 4-3 scheme to rank 17^th and 39^th in 2010 and 2011, respectively, in total defense. He’ll bring that scheme to College Station tasked with turning around a defense that while effective, had a habit of giving up big plays, especially through the air (the Aggies ranked 109^th in pass defense in 2011).

But Texas A&M is hardly the only team playing coordinator roulette right now. Texas Tech is changing defensive coordinators for a second consecutive year, as coach Tommy Tuberville opted to let go former TCU safeties coach Chad Glasgow after one season. The Raiders had high hopes for Glasgow, thanks in large part to his connection to the Gary Patterson coaching tree and his familiarity with the ever-popular 4-2-5 defense, but after finishing 2011 ranking 115^th in total defense (and honestly: that’s a nice way of analyzing the Raiders defense), Tuberville decided to make a change.

On Tuesday, the school confirmed that Glasgow’s replacement has been found: North Carolina defensive coordinator Art Kaufman. Kaufman has been around the block a time or two with this coaching thing: after getting his first coordinator gig at Louisiana Tech in the early ‘90s, he spent six seasons at Ole Miss’ defensive coordinator. After being relieved of his duties in Oxford, he went back down and started his way up again: defensive coordinator at Arkansas Tech, defensive line coach at East Carolina, linebacker coach at Middle Tennessee State, and defensive line coach at Southern Miss, all in seven seasons, until he was hired by North Carolina to coach the linebackers in 2009. The next year, Kaufman was promoted to defensive coordinator in July when coach Butch Davis was fired and interim coach Everett Withers was promoted from within, and Kaufman’s Tar Heel defense had some pretty impressive results: 48^th in total defense, including 28^th in rushing defense. He’s got a tall task ahead of him, but his pedigree of developing linebackers out of his 4-3 scheme – guys like Bruce Carter, Bruce Pearl, Quan Sturdivant and Zach Brown – has to be promising for Red Raider fans.

Bowl Big Shots

Mon, 09 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0600

By Greg Tepper // TexasFootball.com

And with that, college football is over in the state of Texas.

Sure, there’s some game tonight that some people will be watching, but for us in the Lone Star State, SMU’s win over Pitt in the BBVA Compass Bowl and Sam Houston State’s disappointing loss to North Dakota State in the FCS championship marks, for us, the end of college football season.

But from an FBS standpoint, it’s hard to call it much less than a booming success for the Lone Star State.

Teams from the state of Texas finished bowl season with a perfect 6-0 record, as TCU, Texas, Baylor, Houston, Texas A&M and SMU all took home postseason victories.

But who were the biggest individual stars of bowl season from the state of Texas? Let’s take a look, counting down the top ten best individual performances in bowl season.

10) Texas QB David Ash
I thought the Texas quarterback played one of his best games of the year in the Holiday Bowl win over Cal. For the most part, he seemed in control of the offense – a far cry from other times we’ve seen him this season. In the end, he earned Offensive MVP honors by throwing for 142 yards and a touchdown, plus hauling in a touchdown reception on a trick play from WR Jaxon Shipley.

9) TCU WR Skye Dawson
Spoiler alert: I was largely unimpressed with TCU’s win over Louisiana Tech in the Poinsettia Bowl. I thought TCU was the far better team, but sleepwalked through most of the game, letting LaTech hang around only to pull it out in the end. And how did they pull it out? The heroics of QB Casey Pachall and WR Skye Dawson, who hooked up on a game-winning 42-yard touchdown on what was probably TCU’s only really pretty play of the night.

8) Texas A&M WR Jeff Fuller
We knew Jeff Fuller could be this good. We knew he could be “best player on the field” good. And in A&M’s win over Northwestern in the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas, while he wasn’t the best player on the field (we’ll get to him), he was almost uncoverable, catching 7 balls for 119 yards and a score. Fuller’s 2011 was largely forgettable (I thought he underachieved along with the entire Aggies team), but his finale was excellent.

7) Texas LB Keenan Robinson
Yes, David Ash was good, but the only reason Texas was able to beat Cal in the Holiday Bowl was because of defense. And there was no bigger hero for the Horns defense than Keenan Robinson, who continued his excellent season by racking up eight tackles and 2.5 tackles for a loss to earn Defensive MVP honors. What a way to go out for the senior.

6) Baylor QB Robert Griffin III
Kind of wild that the Heisman Trophy winner doesn’t even crack the top half of this list, huh? RG3 was only…pretty good in the Bears’ Alamo Bowl win over Washington, completing 24 of 33 passes for 295 yards and a score, plus rushing for 55 yards and a touchdown. But the honest truth is, RG3 didn’t have to be amazing, because the game turned into such a track meet. I have a feeling we’ll see one of his teammates later on this list.

5) SMU WR Darius Johnson
The MVP of the BBVA Compass Bowl, Johnson was the driving force behind what was a constantly stagnating offense. It seemed like SMU would fall into rut after rut offensively against Pitt, but whenever they needed a big play, they went to Johnson, who hauled in seven catches for 120 yards and a score to help secure SMU’s bowl victory. When the offense sputtered, he responded; that’s the definition of “most valuable player” to me.

4) Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill
He wasn’t perfect by any stretch, but I think Ryan Tannehill was awfully good in A&M’s win over Northwestern in the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas. Completing 27 of 40 passes for 329 yards and a touchdown, he took care of the ball (save for his one interception) and made good decision after good decision. There’s debate over where Tannehill will go in the NFL Draft – I think he’s a middle-rounder, somewhere around third or fourth round – but decision-making like he showed in his college finale will go a long way with scouts.

3) Houston WR Patrick Edwards
Boy, was this guy good all year, and even better in the bowl game. Edwards absolutely flew past the Penn State secondary – a really good Penn State secondary, mind you – catching 10 passes for 228 yards and two touchdown in Houston’s win over the Nittany Lions in the TicketCity Bowl. Edwards has that unique blend of size, speed and hands, and would’ve been the game’s MVP. If only it weren’t for…

2) Houston QB Case Keenum (45-69, 532, 3 TDs)
The big question entering the TicketCity Bowl was how the high-flying Houston offense would fare against one of the nation’s truly elite defenses in Penn State. Well, um, any more questions? In his career finale, Keenum completely torched the Nittany Lions secondary, completing 45 of 69 passes for 532 yards and three touchdowns en route to MVP honors. Case Keenum is a truly singular player in Coogs history, and he went out like he should: on top, and putting up huge numbers.

1) Baylor RB Terrance Ganaway (200/5 TDs)
But everyone pales in comparison to the show that the senior from DeKalb put on for Baylor in the Alamo Bowl against Washington. Ganaway made the AlamoDome his own private racetrack, rushing for 200 yards and an astonishing 5 touchdowns in Baylor’s record-setting win over Washington, earning MVP honors along the way. We knew that the Alamo Bowl could be a track meet; Ganaway ensured that it was one.

Bearkat-palooza

Sat, 07 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0600

By Travis Stewart // TexasFootball.com

By this time tomorrow, the state of Texas could be boasting a national champion.

It's true — today in Frisco (a suburb north of Dallas), Sam Houston State and North Dakota State will go head-to-head for the FCS national championship, a prize that neither team was really supposed to be playing for just a couple of seasons ago.

Consider that Sam Houston State, just in its second year under head coach Willie Fritz, has been more of a middle-of-the-pack contender than a regional favorite for years. Mix in the fact that North Dakota State is only in its eighth year of playing FCS football, and you have to admit that this matchup probably didn't roll off the tongue back in August. Sure, the Bison from up North have been on the fringe of the FCS elite for a little while now. But the leap from quarterfinalist to national champion is mighty big.

Unlike their FBS bowl cousins, expect these two teams to turn to defenses — I'd be shocked if we didn't end up with something fairly low-scoring, which would be a dramatic shift from the endless fireworks of the Rose Bowl and Orange Bowl. And don't tell anyone, but that has me excited — there's a happy medium between the field goal-snooze fests that the SEC can roll out sometimes and the high-flying, defense-is-optional spread assaults the Pac-12 and Big XII sometimes lean on. Believe it or not, I think this matchup may toe that elusive line.

Both Sam Houston and North Dakota are really run-first groups — especially the Bearkats. RB Tim Flanders, a sophomore transfer from Kansas State, has carried the ball 277 times this year, and Richard Sincere (Galveston Ball) has 120. The team as a whole offers 658 carries, as contrasted to 242 passes. So expect Fritz's crew to pound the rock early and often; if the Bearkats can establish the tempo, it helps slow North Dakota's offense and keeps the defense fresh when it does have to take the field.

North Dakota is slightly more balanced, though from the viewpoint of the defensive line, it probably doesn't feel that way. The offensive line is huge, and the Bison even throw a fullback out there to lead block. That's a lot of beef coming at you for 60 snaps or so, something that's made Wisconsin a national contender for several seasons. RBs Sam Ojuri and D.J. McNorton are both husky runners, so part of what makes North Dakota so tough to beat is attrition. if you're not deep, and you're not well-conditioned, you simply won't be able to keep pace. Eventually, the Bison will grind you down.

Luckily, this is where Sam Houston shines — defense. The Bearkats have devoured opponents to the tune of 14.8 points per game, 2.6 yards per rush, eight total rushing touchdowns allowed, 283 yards per game and a 30 percent third down conversion rate. In short, teams that rely on the run usually struggle; the unbeaten Bearkats are so good in the front seven that teams are continually left in second- and third-and-long situations that they can't convert. It's a big reason why SHSU has 22 interceptions on the season. They've also recovered 18 fumbles and stuffed 13 fourth-down attempts. All together, that's 53 turnovers on the season. That's absolutely remarkable.

So that's where I think the battle is won and lost — if Sam Houston can slow the North Dakota run game, let's say to the tune of 14-16 points allowed, then the Bearkats should be heavy favorites. The higher scoring this game gets, the more I think it favors the Bison. But that's not what I'm predicting; there's a reason why SHSU is unbeaten, and it's because of the defense. I think Sam Houston controls the trenches and wins, 21-17.

And then, like it's done plenty of times before, the state of Texas can celebrate — it will have brought home yet another national champion.

BBVA Compass Bowl preview

Fri, 06 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0600

By Greg Tepper // TexasFootball.com

And so it’s come to this, the final FBS game of the season involving a Texas team. The Lone Star State has fared very well in bowl season in 2011-12, going a perfect 5-0 so far. But if Texas is going to finish off bowl season undefeated, it’s up to an SMU team with its own set of issues.

For one, the Mustangs are still without top RB Zach Line. And for another, coach June Jones’ alleged flirtation with Arizona State has caused some internal strife and awkwardness within the team.

Now, the Ponies must put that aside to take on the Big East’s Pittsburgh Panthers in the BBVA Compass Bowl on Saturday afternoon in Birmingham, a team with its own strengths and pretty glaring flaws (including missing its own top rusher). SMU will have a chance to finish of a perfect bowl season for the Lone Star State, but it won’t come without a fight.

As with all of my bowl previews, we'll rely on Football Outsiders' the S&P+ Ratings, a Football Outsiders-derived statistic that seeks to measure and normalize (according to strength of schedule) each facet of both sides of the ball. I encourage you to read all about what goes into the statistic – it’s really fascinating, and in-depth, and multi-faceted – but for the “too long, didn’t read” crowd: a “100” rating is exactly average, and how far from that “100” baseline represents how much above or below average that particular unit is. For example, the Baylor offense’s Passing S&P+ is 154.7 (good enough for third in the nation), meaning that when Baylor passes the ball, it is ~1.5 times as effective as the average collegiate passing offense.

When SMU has the ball

SMU O S&P+ (Rnk)	Category	Pitt D S&P+ (Rnk)
105.6 (52)	Overall	107.2 (46)
115.0 (27)	Rushing	104.9 (48)
95.1 (75)	Passing	106.2 (44)

No, this isn’t the TicketCity Bowl, where Houston’s elite-level offense took on Penn State’s elite-level defense, but this side of the ball provides us with a very interesting bit of gamesmanship. The Pittsburgh defense isn’t loaded with big-name stars, but there’s strength in every area of the Panthers defense. Up front, the Panthers feature a terrific duo of pass-rushing defensive ends in senior Chas Alecxih and sophomore Aaron Donald. Combined, they’ve racked up 15.5 sacks on the year, earning each of them second-team All-Big East honors. At the linebacker spot, there’s senior captain Max Gruder, who leads the team with 107 tackles. In the secondary, the star is probably safety Jarred Holley, a junior who earned first-team All-Big East honors thanks to what was probably the best all-around season for a Pitt defender. And they’ve got a relative lock-down corner, too, in senior Antwuan Reed. So the question is…why is a team with standouts at every level of the defense only an OK defensive unit? My theory: the team’s offense tends to hang its defense out to dry: at 28:53 per game, Pittsburgh’s time of possession ranks 86^th in the nation, meaning the defense has to play a lot. That tends to bode well for SMU, a team that can control the clock with the running game…except that leading rusher Zach Line is still out for the season. The onus will fall on freshman RB Jared Williams to expose what will be SMU’s biggest advantage: running the ball. Despite the fact that Pitt’s secondary can be beaten – allowing 233.3 pass yards per game ranks 72^nd in the nation – it all depends on which version of QB J.J. McDermott shows up in Birmingham. Will it be the McDermott who lit up the TCU defense? Or will it be the McDermott who threw four interceptions against Tulsa? I think SMU will have a pretty good measure of success running the ball; if McDermott can supplement that with a good game, that will give the Ponies a significant advantage in this one.

When Pitt has the ball

SMU D S&P+ (Rnk)	Category	Pitt O S&P+ (Rnk)
111.3 (35)	Overall	98.7 (64)
110.5 (40)	Rushing	121.5 (16)
116.1 (26)	Passing	90.7 (88)

There have been two eras of the Pitt offense: with Ray Graham, and post-Ray Graham. Graham was en route to perhaps a Big East Player of the Year-caliber season, rushing for 958 yards and nine touchdowns to pace the Panthers offense. That was…until Graham hurt his right knee in the first quarter of Pittsburgh’s win over Connecticut on Oct. 26. Since that happened, the offense has relied a lot more on QB Tino Sunseri, a quarterback that I would describe as perfectly average. He completes a decent amount of his passes – 63.9% -- but he rarely goes down the field, and he’s thrown as many touchdown passes as interceptions (10 apiece). And considering SMU’s defensive strength lies in the secondary – guys like Chris Banjo and Ryan Smith – Pitt is faced with an interesting dilemma: run the ball without their best weapon (senior Zach Brown takes over the rushing load, but he’s no Ray Graham), or continue to put the ball in Sunseri’s hands. Sunseri’s got some weapons – sophomore WR Devin Street and junior Mike Shanahan are chief among them – but it’s an interesting choice for interim coach Kevin Patterson (a defensive-minded guy) to make. I think we’ll see a mix, but if SMU’s front of Taylor Reed, Ja’Gared Davis and Marquis Frazier can shut down Brown and the Pitt running game, forcing Sunseri to beat them, the Ponies are sitting pretty.

Special Teams

Pitt’s special teams are perfectly average. Kicker Kevin Harper handles both the kickoff and field goal duties, and he tends to struggle with both: his 7.4% touchback percentage ranks a paltry 87^th nationally, and he’s made just 19 of his 28 field goal attempts this season. Sophomore punter Matt Yoklic is pretty average, too, averaging 40.8 yards per punt this season. And as for the return game, there’s not a lot to say: Pitt hasn’t returned a kickoff or punt for a touchdown, and it’s hard to imagine them doing it in the bowl game.

Three Keys for SMU

1) JJ McDermott. Not to put it on just one player, but the SMU quarterback is probably the most important guy to suit up on Saturday afternoon. If McDermott performs well, that’ll open up the entire offense, forcing the Panthers defense to respect the pass and the run. If McDermott plays well, SMU wins, period.

2) Stop the run. It’s very hard to imagine Tino Sunseri lighting up the SMU secondary, which means that if the Ponies can stop the Panthers running game, they’ll be in a good position to shut down the Panthers offense altogether.

3) Win the intangibles battle. Both teams are going through their own brand of coaching turmoil, what with June Jones’ flirtation with Arizona State and Pitt’s coaching change. I hate relying on intangibles to call a game, but whoever focuses more will have the upper-hand, because there will be distractions aplenty.

Prediction

Tough one to call. All things being equal, I think Pitt is the better team, but all things aren’t equal: both teams are without their leading rusher, both teams have had off-the-field issues with their coaching, and both teams have never seen a team like one another before. In the end, I’ll take the Ponies; I think J.J. McDermott plays one of his best games of the season, WR Darius Johnson makes a number of big catches, and the SMU defense holds off Pitt’s offense for a 34-30 win.

Defenses need not apply

Fri, 30 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0600

By Travis Stewart // TexasFootball.com

Look — it's not like we were expecting Baylor's defense to be particularly good at the beginning of the season.

Not that it mattered much last night at the Alamobowl, where BU downed Washington, 67-56, in the highest-scoring regulation bowl game in college football history. The first question everyone will have is how Heisman-winning QB Robert Griffin III fared, and the answer is "pretty good" — 295 yards and a touchdown passing, a touchdown rushing and a lost fumble. So where on earth did all the rest of those points come from?

Big-bodied running back Terrance Ganaway, as a matter of fact — the ex-Houston Coog churned out 200 yards and five scores on just 21 carries, and Jarred Salubi and Tevin Reese both contributed 101 yards apiece on a combined total of seven carries. In short, no matter which way you look, Washington was completely shredded by the Bears' high-flying attack.

Of course, the green and gold didn't look so hot there, either, en route to its first ten-win season since 1980. Washington QB Keith Price, a sophomore, did a laundry list of damage to Baylor's defense, throwing for 438 yards and four scores and rushing for three more. WR Jermaine Kearse caught five passes for 198 yards and a score. In short, if you were looking for a good ole' fashioned slobberknocker, this was not the game for you.

But it certainly was exciting. Those expecting a BU blowout were satisfied early, when Baylor built a 21-7 lead near the end of the first quarter. Then the script abruptly flipped, as Washington rang up 28 in the second quarter alone, to BU's three. Suddenly it was 35-24, Washington, at halftime. Momentum see-sawed back in the third second half, when the Bears scored 29 points in the third quarter and allowed Washington just seven in the fourth. Like Shaquille O'Neal, the Baylor defense made it happen when it counted.

But now the question for Baylor fans surrounds Robert Griffin, the junior who could leave for the NFL if he so wishes. It'd be mildly surprising if he didn't leave, honestly, considering he's projected to be a high draft pick, which means he'd be a very rich man. Then again, as Baylor fans chanted "One more year!" after the game last night, you have to wonder if one of Texas' most unique superstars could be persuaded to finish out his senior year and bring more good tidings to Waco.

The school loves him. The city loves him. The media loves him. And honestly, most fans love him, with the exception he beats their teams (UT, OU, etc.). I think I can safely say that anyone without a horse in the race (or team in the Big XII) finds him alluring. But is that enough to turn down a seven-figure payday?

Griffin deflected questions regarding the NFL last night, which was appropriate — it was a time for he, his teammates and fans to enjoy their bowl victory. There will be a time to consider the NFL issue for him. Just not that moment.

But for us? Well, that's a different matter. And I know I'll be pondering it over the next few weeks.

New recruits

Tue, 03 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0600

By Greg Tepper // TexasFootball.com

With all of the conference realignment going on in the state of Texas this season – Texas A&M leaving for the SEC, TCU leaving for the Big XII, Houston and SMU leaving (in 2013) for the Big East – it’s easy to forget that Texas will have two brand new FBS teams starting next season.

In case you forgot, both Texas-San Antonio and Texas State will be joining the FBS ranks next season, leaving the FCS for the Western Athletic Conference in the top tier of college football.

There’s excitement swirling around San Antonio and San Marcos for the 2012 football season, and for good reason: it’s a monumental leap for the programs. UTSA just wrapped up its very first season of football, going 4-6 in their inaugural season as an FCS independent. Texas State has a far longer history, playing every year since 1904 (the last 23 in the Southland Conference) and claiming 11 conference championships and two national championships (back-to-back in 1981-82).

And there’s big-name coaches in place to usher in the new eras, with former Miami coach Larry Coker running the Roadrunners in San Antonio, while former TCU, Texas A&M and Alabama coach Dennis Franchione leads the Texas State Bobcats.

But why wait to get excited about the 2012 season? After all, football is a year-round sport, and this is recruiting season!

Texas State and UTSA’s entry into the FBS ranks could have ripple effects across the entire state as far as recruiting. Think about it: there are now 12 schools vying for the same FBS-caliber recruits instead of just ten in the state. Now, should UTSA fans expect to take big-time recruits from Texas, or Texas State stealing away some of Texas A&M’s best prospects? No; or, at least, not for the time being. But if recruiting is a numbers game – and it is – the numbers just changed.

In the next couple of months, TexasFootball.com is going to be very recruiting-heavy, culminating around National Signing Day on February 1, 2012. And why not start with taking a glance at the currently constructed inaugural 2012 recruiting classes for UTSA and Texas State.

A note: both of these teams figure to be major players in the junior college ranks, but we’ll only deal with the high school recruits in this quick glance. And remember: these are only verbal commitments, which are non-binding until they put pen to paper starting on Feb. 1.

Onward! We’ll start with the Texas State Bobcats.

Justin Albritton	DB	Anahuac	5'11"	185
Damani Alexcee	DB	LC Clear Springs	6'1"	175
Matt Gray	OL	Prattville (AL)	6'6"	300
Jerrid Jeter-Gilmon	LB	Brenham	6'2"	205
Hayden Lambert	OL	Aledo	6'5"	255
Dallas McClarty	DT	LC Clear Springs	5'11"	280
Ryan Melton	OL	Liberty	6'5"	265
Fred Nixon	QB	Willis	6'3"	200
Felix Romero	OL	Cedar Park	6'3"	297
Stephen Smith	LB	Sugar Land	6'3"	220
Martel Summers	DB	Leander	6'1"	186
Dede Westbrook	WR	Cameron Yoe	5'11"	175

Coach Dennis Franchione is bringing the beef in this one early, getting a number of really nice linemen in his first haul. Aledo’s Hayden Lambert is one of the gems of this class from where I’m sitting, plowing the road for record-setting Texas commit Johnathan Gray, but I also think Cedar Park’s Felix Romero is a great get. Remember: the 2012 class is very good in the offensive line group, so getting a few here is very nice. I’m a big fan of Brenham LB Jerrid Jeter-Gilmon; he’s a big bruising linebacker who’s got great pedigree coming from a defensive factory with the Cubs. The same goes for the pair from League City Clear Creek, DT Dallas McClarty and DB Damani Alexcee. McClarty notched 108 tackles and 8 sacks for the Chargers, while Alexcee had great success in the secondary, notching 92 tackles, three interceptions and seven pass defenses. Everyone wants to talk about QBs, so let’s talk about Fred Nixon, who’s got great size at 6-foot-3 and had a great year, throwing for 2,261 yards and 23 TDs while adding another five scores on the ground. And Westbrook had a great season for the overall underwhelming Yoemen of Cameron this year, leading the team with 34 receptions for 468 yards and six touchdowns. He’s a bit undersized, projecting more as a slot receiver on the next level.

What about the UTSA Roadrunners’ 2012 class?

Cody Berry	DB	Woodland Hills (CA)	6'1"	220
Zach Conque	QB	Little Rock (AR) Catholic	6'4"	205
Trey Mohair	ATH	Denton Ryan	5'11"	180

As you can see, there’s not a whole lot here that I’m qualified to talk about, though I will say that at 6-4 and 205 pounds, I’m very excited to see what QB Zach Conque can do. The star of this class, if you ask me, is Trey Mohair out of Denton Ryan. And really, athlete is the perfect way to describe Mohair, who’s got speed to burn all over the field (he’s listed as running a 4.5 40-yard dash, and having seen him in person, I agree. Denton Ryan moved him all over the field, but he was best known for his receiving ability, hauling in 16 catches for 248 yards and four touchdowns for the Raiders this year. He’s also a basketball star, and will likely try to play two sports. And while I said we wouldn’t talk about junior college transfers, there’s one guy to note here: quarterback Tucker Carter, who’s playing at Trinity Valley Community College. Recognize the name? Carter was the guy who stepped in to lead the Allen Eagles to a championship as a junior back in 2008. You know he’s a winner, and though I haven’t seen him play since Allen’s area round loss to Southlake Carroll back in 2009, if his tools have progressed at even a modest rate from where they were, he’s a terrific get for Larry Coker and company.

TicketCity Bowl preview

Mon, 02 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0600

By Greg Tepper // TexasFootball.com

This certainly isn't where the Houston Cougars were hoping to be a couple of months ago.

It was just a month ago that Houston entered the Conference USA championship game unbeaten, looking to finish off a perfect season and nab a spot in the BCS. Alas, it wasn't to be, as Southern Miss took the fight to the Coogs and dashed their BCS hopes. And to add to the recent misery of the Houston program, head coach Kevin Sumlin is off to take the job at Texas A&M, and the foundation that endows many of the program's scholarship was defrauded by a ponzi scheme.

So instead, Houston lands in the second annual TicketCity Bowl, played at the historic Cotton Bowl in Dallas. It's not ideal, but there are a number of positives. It provides an excellent recruiting tool to play close to one of Houston's recruiting hotbeds, giving new coach Tony Levine a jumpstart on his new job; the Coogs can still claim an unprecented 13th victory (they'd never won more than 11 before this season); and it can prove that its superstar offense, led by QB Case Keenum, is the real deal against one of the nation's elite defenses.

That's because the Coogs will be taking on Penn State, the best defensive team from the defensive-minded Big Ten Conference. Penn State enters with its own baggage -- the ongoing child sex abuse imbroglio has cast a pall over what was to be a celebrated season, and its starting QB is now out after getting into a fight with a teammate -- but the Nittany Lions are a terrific team with one of the nation's most impressive defensive units.

This may not be where the Coogs wanted to be, but there's plenty to play for today in Dallas.

When Houston has the ball

Houston O S&P+ (Rnk)	Category	Penn State D S&P+ (Rnk)
133.6 (5)	Overall	134.9 (5)
117.0 (24)	Rushing	130.4 (14)
134.7 (8)	Defense	151.8 (3)

This is the matchup we’re all tuning in for, right? The high-flying Houston offense taking on one of the nation’s truly elite defensive units. And do not get it confused: this match-up is exactly as good as advertised. Penn State is absolutely loaded on the defensive end, but the best player the Nittany Lions have to offer is all-everything defensive tackle Devon Still. A consensus All-American and winner of the Big Ten’s Smith-Brown Defensive Lineman of the Year Award, the 6-5, 310-pound senior has been a monster all year, accumulating 17 tackles for a loss and 4.5 sacks while leading one of the nation’s best rushing defenses. Still and his co-pilot on the defensive line Jack Crawford (team-high 6.5 sacks) will present the biggest challenge that the Houston offensive line has faced this season. Then you take into account first team All-Big Ten linebacker Gerald Hodges (team-high 97 tackles, 10 TFL, 4.5 sacks), and you start to see why this Penn State defense is so good. It could be very tough sledding for the Houston running game, but it’ll be very important to at least try to keep the Nittany Lions off-balance by using the run early and often with RB Bryce Beall. Of course, running is not what people know Houston for; the Coogs are a passing team with a record-setting quarterback and a bevy of weapons on the outside. But this is an excellent Penn State secondary – probably the best that Houston’s seen – and it starts with senior safety Nick Sukay. A second-team All-Big Ten selection, Sukay is just a playmaker, leading the team in breakups, pass defenses and interceptions and essentially taking away the deep ball. I think the Houston receivers can have some success against the PSU secondary, but it’s going to need to be in short patterns, since Penn State’s safety play (Sukay and senior Drew Astorino) is so good. Look for Houston to try to dink-and-dunk Penn State down the field, with Keenum throwing short crossing patterns and hitches for five and six yards at a time to suck the safeties up, then attempt to beat them over the top with Patrick Edwards. Don’t get me wrong: Houston is very capable of scoring on Penn State (Wisconsin hung 45 on the Nittany Lions with 450 yards of total offense, and both Purdue and Northwestern had success against them as well). But this is a truly elite defensive unit, and it’s going to take Houston’s best game to crack their code.

When Penn State has the ball

Houston D S&P+ (Rnk)	Category	Penn State O S&P+ (Rnk)
98.7 (67)	Overall	95.5 (75)
94.8 (83)	Rushing	107.1 (48)
93.6 (83)	Defense	92.3 (82)

Oh yeah, there’s an entire other half of the game. This isn’t the matchup that is selling tickets and setting TiVos, but it’s got an entirely different and interesting bit of intrigue unto itself. Penn State’s offense just hasn’t been good this season, but the engine that drives Penn State’s offense is RB Silas Redd. A second team All-Big Ten selection, Redd has been Penn State’s best and most consistent offensive weapon, running for 1,188 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging over 5 yards per carry and just a shade under 100 yards per game. And considering Houston’s woes stopping the run – at 171.7 yards allowed per game, Houston ranks 78^th in the nation – you can bet that priority No. 1 for Houston LBs Marcus McGraw and Sammy Brown will be to slow down Redd and the rushing attack. And…really, that might be enough to shut down the Penn State offense. The passing game has been dreadful for the Nittany Lions all season, and it doesn’t look to get a whole lot better now that junior QB Matt McGloin is out after sustaining a concussion and subsequent seizure after getting into a locker room fight with teammate Curtis Drake. The reins will be passed to sophomore Robert Bolden, who split time with McGloin in the first half of the season, including starting the first seven games. Bolden is what you think he is: a sophomore quarterback. He’s pretty inaccurate – completing barely over 40% of his passes – and he’s thrown four interceptions against just one touchdown pass. He’ll have a couple of receiving threats – senior WR Derek Moye and junior Justin Brown are probably the best of the bunch – but the question is whether he can consistently find them. It’s hard to imagine that the Penn State gameplan involves a huge amount of passing, despite the Coogs difficulty stopping it, but if they do go to the air, it’ll be important for DBs Phillip Steward and Derrick Mathews to be ready to attack while the ball is in the air.

Special teams

Penn State, like most teams that rely on defense to win games, are very sound on the special teams front. Sophomore Anthony Fera does it all. He’s a second team All-Big Ten selection, averaging 42 yards per punt while also handling kickoff duties, where he ranks 27^th in the nation with a 23.8% touchback rate. And as for field goals, he’s been excellent, hitting 14 of his 17 attempts this season. And keep an eye out for kickoff returner Chaz Powell; the senior defensive back averages over 28 yards per return – 11^th in the nation – and has taken a kick back for a score this season. He’s to be feared or kicked away from.

Three keys for Houston

1) Reel in Redd. I know, I know, this is the side of the ball that nobody wants to talk about, but with Penn State’s crisis at quarterback (and it’s not like they were setting the world on fire throwing the ball before McGloin went out), the Nittany Lions offense will revolve around their talented RB Silas Redd even more. It’s up to Houston to slow him down, and if the Coogs can contain Redd, the chances of a Houston win goes up significantly.

2) Case Keenum. Case Keenum has had one of the best college quarterback careers in history, and he has a chance to go out on top by taking on one of the nation’s best defenses. If Keenum has a big day, the Coogs will win, period. If he doesn’t, well, they probably won’t. It sounds simple, but really, football’s a simple game.

3) Composure. Both of these teams have had their own brand of turbulence (though Houston losing coach Kevin Sumlin pales in comparison to the ongoing tragedy at Penn State). If the Coogs can keep their wits about them, I think they have a great chance of winning this game and making an already historic season even loftier.

Prediction

This one’s really tough to call. I think Houston can actually hold down its opponent defensively – imagine that! – and that this game will be lower scoring than people think. But just because it’s low-scoring doesn’t mean Houston can’t win. I think the Coogs get stymied in the first half, make some adjustments and find a way to eke out a 23-17 victory.

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas preview

Sat, 31 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0600

By Greg Tepper // TexasFootball.com

Let’s cut straight to the chase: Texas A&M should win the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas. But it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they didn’t.

The A&M program is undergoing a complete facelift right now, in the midst of changing coaches (Mike Sherman is out, interim coach Tim DeRuyter will coach but has already accepted the job at Fresno State, and Houston coach Kevin Sumlin is on his way) and changing conferences (this will be Texas A&M’s final game as a member of the Big XII, leaving for the SEC next season). Then, when you take into account the way A&M has lost most of their games this season, blowing big lead after big lead, and now coming off a crippling loss to rival Texas, you wonder where the Aggies’ head is.

And now on deck: the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas against a feisty but flawed Northwestern squad, a team with an exceptional quarterback and not a whole lot else. Texas A&M is the deserved favorite here, but this is a game that will be decided more between the ears than between the hashes.

When A&M has the ball

A&M O S&P+ (Rnk)	Category	Northwestern D S&P+ (Rnk)
116.9 (19)	Overall	89.5 (92)
122.5 (15)	Rushing	95.5 (79)
114.0 (35)	Passing	74.7 (115)

See what I mean when I say that A&M’s going to look a lot better on paper? Northwestern’s defense is just not very good, no matter how you slice it. If there’s a saving grace for the Wildcats, it’s that they’re better against the run – A&M’s strong suit – than they are against the pass. They’re by no means good at stopping either, but they’re better against the run, and that’s something. Here’s a good gauge of how well the Northwestern defense is doing: if their top linebackers – Houston Episcopal’s own David Nwabuisi and senior Bryce McNaul – are making tackles, things are going pretty well for the Wildcats; if guys like Ibraheim Campbell and Brian Peters, the team’s top tacklers who play in the secondary, are getting their name called a lot, that’s good for the Aggies, since that means Cyrus Gray and Ben Malena are probably rattling off 8 yards a carry. And the advantage will only get starker when A&M passes the ball, as the Wildcats have had trouble stopping the pass all season. Keeping in mind that Northwestern really hasn’t faced a ton of outstanding passing teams, the fact that the Wildcats allowed more than 280 yards passing to Boston College, Illinois, Michigan and Nebraska bodes very well for the Aggies. If QB Ryan Tannehill has time, he should be able to find open receivers early, often and deep (at 8.5 yards per attempt allowed, Northwestern ranks 112^th in the nation in that metric). The onus falls on the A&M offensive line to keep Tannehill clean…and really, that’s the biggest mismatch of them all. A&M’s line has allowed just eight sacks this season, the fewest in the nation, while Northwestern’s defensive line, led by Vince Browne and Jack DiNardo, has notched just 16 sacks all season, which is tied for 101^st in the nation. In short: Texas A&M’s offense is just a lot better than Northwestern’s defense.

When Northwestern has the ball

A&M D S&P+ (Rnk)	Category	Northwestern O S&P+ (Rnk)
117.7 (20)	Overall	114.9 (22)
126.4 (15)	Rushing	111.0 (37)
119.8 (22)	Passing	121.5 (22)

On this side, the sides are a little more even, though A&M still holds at least a mild advantage. The best weapon that Northwestern has on either side of the ball is their talented QB, Dan Persa. I’m not trying to oversell him, but think of him as Kellen Moore Lite: he has lethal accuracy (74.3%, tied for first in the nation with the aforementioned Moore) and works the ball down the field more often than not, notching 8.3 yards per attempt, tied for 17^th in the nation. Essentially, if he had played all 12 games (he missed the first three games while recovering from a horrible torn Achilles injury), I think we’d be talking about Persa as one of the most impressive QBs in the country. He’s got a number of targets, but one stands out above all of them: senior WR Jeremy Ebert, who leads the team both in volume of catches (71 for 1,025 yards) and yards per catch (14 yards a reception). He’ll be his number one threat, so expect to see either bracket coverage or Coryell Judie on Ebert. But again, A&M’s biggest strength lies in the line play, as the Aggies have one of the nation’s best pass rushes (2^nd in the nation with 43 sacks) while Northwestern has one of the nation’s worst pass protections (102^nd in the nation with 34 sacks allowed). If Sean Porter and Damontre Moore can get pressure on Persa, the Aggies will take away perhaps Northwestern’s biggest advantage in this one. Running the ball…well, it just really isn’t Northwestern’s thing. The Wildcats will cycle in senior Jacob Schmidt and freshman Treyvon Green, who are each capable if unspectacular. The star of the rushing game, strangely enough, is the backup QB Kain Colter, who is used a lot like Oklahoma QB Blake Bell: as a short-yardage back. If it’s 1^st and goal for Northwestern, expect Colter to come in and run the ball. But in the end, Northwestern just doesn’t run the ball well enough or often enough for A&M to really worry about it. The star of this show is Persa, and he’s very capable of shredding A&M’s secondary if the Aggies let him.

Special Teams

Really, there’s not a ton to say here. Northwestern features two kickers: junior Steve Flahrety handles kickoffs, and he’s pretty good at it, though his 9.5% touchback percentage leaves a little to be desired; sophomore Jeff Budzien does the placekicking, and he’s performed…like a sophomore, hitting just six of his ten kicks this season. The Wildcats’ punter, sophomore Brandon Williams, is your pretty middle-of-the-road punter, averaging a little over 40 yards per boot. Not much to speak of in the return game, either; Northwestern doesn’t have a return touchdown this season. Suffice to say that A&M having Randy Bullock means that A&M should have the lone game-breaking special teams player on the field today.

Three Keys for A&M

1) Dominate up front. A&M’s biggest advantages are its offensive and defensive lines, and while it isn’t sexy, that’s what’s going to win or lose this game for the Aggies. There’s no reason why A&M shouldn’t be able to run the ball effectively and get big pressure on QB Dan Persa. Do that, and it’s hard to picture the Aggies losing.

2) Contain Persa. Look, I think that Northwestern QB Dan Persa is really, really good. I think he’s got a shot to light up the A&M secondary. The key is to make sure Persa only has an average game, not a good or sensational game. If Persa is only “pretty good,” I think A&M wins, and that means getting pressure and defending well in the secondary.

3) Focus. It’s hard to put yourself in the shoes of these players, going through a coaching change, a conference change, a potential confidence crisis. The biggest thing that can trip up A&M today is themselves; the Aggies are the better team, and if they put aside all of the external things, I think they’ll win.

Prediction

Not to harp, but this, to me, all comes down to the Aggies’ mentality. They’re the far superior squad on paper, but paper doesn’t take snaps. If the Aggies come out focused, putting aside the turmoil around the program and their own potentially floundering confidence, they’ll win, plain and simple. If not, Northwestern’s good enough to beat them. I think the Aggies have it in them to win this one, getting a big game from Ryan Tannehill and Cyrus Gray to give A&M a 34-24 win.

Alamo Bowl preview

Thu, 29 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0600

By Greg Tepper // TexasFootball.com

How happy is the Alamo Bowl right now?

Usually, the Alamo Bowl has a pretty good matchup of pretty good teams with pretty good star power. But this season, oh man, did they hit the motherlode.

This year, the Alamo City will play host to, in my opinion, one of the most exciting and anticipated bowl games of the season…complete with a Heisman Trophy winner.

Robert Griffin III will lead his Baylor Bears against a Washington Huskies team that is a lot better than you think, and boy, could this one be a shootout. Both teams feature great offenses…and both teams feature highly questionable defenses.

Get your popcorn ready, not only for the Robert Griffin III Show, but for what should be a highly entertaining bowl game.

On to the analysis!

When Baylor has the ball

Baylor O S&P+ (Rnk)	Category	Washington D S&P+ (Rnk)
137.9 (3)	Overall	90.6 (89)
124.3 (12)	Rushing	91.5 (92)
154.7 (3)	Passing	96.1 (74)

I know this is going to come as a shock to some of you, so brace yourself: Baylor’s offense is really, really good. And here’s the great news for Baylor fans: Washington’s defense is really, really not. So much so…that I’m having a hard time trying to find something nice to say about the Huskies on defense. In fact, according to Football Outsiders’ S&P+ Rating system, the Huskies will be the fourth-worst defense the Bears have faced this season, better only than Rice, Texas Tech and Kansas. And what did Robert Griffin III and company do to those teams? Three wins, and an average of 51 points and 598.3 yards per game. Yikes. There are, to me, two defenders of note for the Huskies: senior LB Cort Dennison, the team’s leading tackler who is a pretty strong all-around defender, and sophomore safety Sean Parker, a ball-hawking young up-and-comer who could be a playmaker to watch. But here’s the problem: Washington just…doesn’t play good defense, period. Steve Sarkisian’s squad is really, really young, starting as many seniors as it does underclassmen (four). Up front, DTs Alameda Ta’amu and Everette Thompson have been pushed around this season, opening the door for what could be a big game for Baylor RB Terrance Ganaway. But here’s the thing: how well Washington stops the run will likely determine this one. Teams who have run the ball effectively against the Huskies have tended to win, because A) Washington isn’t good at stopping it, and B) it keeps the powerful Washington offense off the field (we’ll get to that in a moment). How well Baylor’s offensive line is able to dictate the game will likely determine this. I don’t mean to dismiss the Heisman Trophy winner’s contributions, but basically, you know RGIII’s going to get his. Nobody has stopped Griffin this season, and does anyone really think Cal – a team that boasts the 116^th best pass defense in the nation in yards-per-game – is going to do it? If you’re looking for a passing matchup, it’s probably Cal’s top corner, junior Desmond Trufant, on top wideout Kendall Wright. But ultimately – and again, I hate to minimize the Heisman winner’s importance – I think this side of the ball comes down to how well everyone besides Robert Griffin III plays, because you know RGIII will get his.

When Washington has the ball

Baylor D S&P+ (Rnk)	Category	Washington O S&P+ (Rnk)
94.8 (78)	Overall	109.8 (35)
100.6 (58)	Rushing	106.4 (51)
92.8 (86)	Passing	117.5 (28)

Baylor’s much-maligned defense has been, well, pretty maligned. And while the Huskies won’t be as potent of an offense as the Bears have faced this season – Oklahoma State, TCU, Oklahoma and Texas A&M are all better than Washington offensively – they’re very capable of scoring in bunches. Washington’s got a young one-two punch that a lot of teams would happily accept in sophomore QB Keith Price and junior RB Chris Polk. We’ll start with the passing game, which has been overshadowed in the Pac-12 by the likes of Stanford’s Andrew Luck and USC’s Matt Barkley, but can be very, very dangerous. For a sophomore, Price has been sensational, taking care of the ball (67.4% completion rate, 29 TDs against just 11 interceptions) and having down-the-field ability, too (averaging 8.1 yards per attempt). He’s got a number of weapons on the outside – six different players have at least 26 receptions – but the three I’d keep my eye on are senior WRs Devin Aguilar and Jermaine Kearse, and true freshman TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins. It works exactly like you think: one of the wideouts is more of a deep threat (Aguilar, averaging almost 15 yards a catch); one of the wideouts is a possession guy (Kearse, with a higher volume of catches for just a touch fewer yards); and the tight end is the hybrid who runs across the middle and seam patterns (and is a legitimate red zone threat). It’ll be key for the much-beleaguered Baylor secondary – guys like Mike Hicks and Joe Williams -- to keep up with the speedy and varied receiver threats, because Price is good enough even as a sophomore to take a mile if you give him an inch. The Washington pass game vs. the Baylor pass defense is a mismatch in the Huskies’ favor, and how much they’re able to exploit it will go a long way in determining this one. The battle up front and on the ground is much more evenly matched. Polk, the third-leading rusher in the Pac-12 and first-team All-Pac-12 selection, has been a steady force for the Huskies, averaging over 5 yards per carry and having the strange ability to get stronger as the game goes along. It helps to have a big offensive line – the fivesome averages just under 300 pounds apiece – led by big senior tackle Senio Kelemete; the Huskies are a very well-balanced squad, and it usually starts with establishing the run. Can guys like Nicholas Jean-Baptise and LB Elliot Coffey slow down the Huskies on the ground? It’s a lot better bet than the Baylor secondary slowing down the passing attack, so it might be necessary for the Bears to dominate the game up front defensively on both sides – getting pressure with guys like Tracy Robertson – if this game’s going to go the Bears’ way.

Special teams

I’m not sure I can draw a truly definitive advantage in this realm. Kicker Erik Folk – the brother of New York Jet and former Dallas Cowboy kicker Nick Folk – has been pretty good this season on both kickoffs and field goals, but there’s not a lot to really talk about as far as superlatives. Sophomore WR Kevin Smith does most of the kick returning for the Huskies, and he’s effective, averaging almost 26 yards per return, good enough for 27^th nationally. If there is an advantage for Washington, it’s in their punter Kiel Rasp, who averaged almost 44 yards per boot despite not getting a ton of opportunities – his 3.7 punts per game is in the bottom 10% in the nation.

Three Keys for Baylor

1) Exploit the advantage. Let’s be honest: Baylor’s offense is way, way, way better than Washington’s defense. It’s time for the Bears to put on a show offensively. Robert Griffin III will have a chance to carve up the Huskies secondary, and if RB Terrance Ganaway can get loose, this could be a record-setting evening for the Bears.

2) Count to three. This might sound bold, but I think the Baylor defense will need just three stops – either punts, turnovers on downs or turnovers – to win this one. This game is going to get up and down, because I think both offenses are the far superior units, and whoever gets three stops will have an inside edge toward taking this one. And considering how good the Washington offense can be, and how pedestrian the Baylor defense can be, that might be hard to come by.

3) RGIII. Let’s be honest: this really might be the last game in the green and gold for one of the greatest players in Baylor history. You know he wants to go out with a bang, and you know he’s going to be the best player on the field. Let him do his thing.

Prediction

I’m really excited to sit down and watch this one. I think this game could turn into an absolute track meet, with speed on both offenses to burn and nary a decent defensive unit to be found. But in the end, how do you expect me to pick against the Heisman Trophy winner? I think Robert Griffin III cements his legacy, Kendall Wright and Terrance Ganaway have huge days, and Baylor makes one more stop defensively than Washington for a 48-41 win.

Holiday Bowl preview

Wed, 28 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0600

By Greg Tepper // TexasFootball.com

Dave Campbell’s Texas Football has never been in the business of tooting its own horn. So allow me to toot it for DCTF.

Back in April, in the midst of putting together the 2011 summer edition of Dave Campbell’s Texas Football, the DCTF team got together and picked the records for all of the FBS teams in Texas. Making predictions is harder – and more dangerous – than you think. Remember: my passing prediction on Twitter is relatively meaningless; but putting the prediction in print, in a magazine read by hundreds of thousands? Yeah. That’s heavy.

So we got to the University of Texas, the premier football program in the state of Texas over the past decade but coming off of a horribly disappointing 5-7 season. We looked at the schedule. We looked at what the Longhorns had coming back. And an overwhelming feeling came across all of us simultaneously:

This Longhorns team looked like a 7-5 team.

So we went with it. We caught a fair amount of guff from the Twittersphere and Texas fans.

And yet here we are, with the Longhorns at 7-5 and facing a capable – and occasionally dangerous – Cal team in the Holiday Bowl. DCTF isn’t always right – Texas A&M to go 11-1 didn’t quite pan out – but we definitely had a bead on this Longhorns squad.

What do we think about tonight’s season finale against a Pac-12 squad in San Diego? Let’s take a look!

On to the analysis!

When Texas has the ball

Texas O S&P+ (Rnk)	Category	Cal D S&P+ (Rnk)
94.6 (77)	Overall	115.8 (24)
104.7 (56)	Rushing	108.1 (44)
84.7 (98)	Passing	128.2 (15)

The Longhorns have been notoriously bad on offense this season, but as the numbers bear out, the running game is hardly to blame. It’s been the passing game, and really, considering the secondary tends to be Cal’s strength on defense, it’s probably in Texas’ best interest to not even try to pass. The secondary is stacked, including a number of strong Texas-bred players like Skyline’s own Steve Williams and Klein Forest product Josh Hill. Between them and safeties D.J. Campbell and Marc Anthony, it’s hard to fathom David Ash or Case McCoy having a boatload of success. Instead, I think Texas will try to keep it on the ground, where Cal is less formidable. LBs Mychal Kendricks and D.J. Holt have been pretty good this year, but the defensive line can be pushed around a bit; Oregon’s high-octane rushing attack racked up 365 yards, while UCLA – UCLA – managed 294 yards against the Bears. Even Arizona State ran for 213 yards, leading me to think that Texas will commit to the run early and often. Who is healthy, on the other hand, is still a relative unknown. Regardless, that’s Texas’ best hope to mount some offense: run and run and run some more. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jaxon Shipley get some touches on end-arounds or some of that famous Bryan Harsin razzle-dazzle, because with Cal’s defense, if the running game isn’t going, Texas’ offense likely isn’t going.

When Cal has the ball

Texas D S&P+ (Rnk)	Category	Cal O S&P+ (Rnk)
132.3 (9)	Overall	105.1 (55)
145.0 (4)	Rushing	102.0 (69)
137.1 (9)	Passing	102.7 (60)

Let’s be clear about something: this will not be the best offense Texas has seen this season. It won’t be the second or third or fourth or fifth or sixth or seventh-best offense Texas has faced this season. But the Bears still present a tough challenge to the Longhorns’ strong defense. Cal’s offense tends to flow through their QB Zach Maynard, but let’s get to him in a minute. To me, the guy who really turns the key to this offense is RB Isi Sofele, a guy who’s averaging 5.5 yards per carry in what is about as balanced of an offense as you’ll find. The problem is…when Cal can’t get the run going, it tends to lose. Consider: in Cal’s seven wins, the Bears average over 5 yards per carry; in their five losses, just 3.3 yards per carry. If the Texas front seven – guys like Emmanuel Acho, Keenan Robinson, Jackson Jeffcoat and the like – can stuff the run, that would help the Longhorns’ chances dramatically. It would also force the ball into the hands of QB Zach Maynard, a guy whom I’d qualify as good-not-great. He’s completing 57% of his passes at about 7.5 yards an attempt, but he has a tendency to be careless; his 11 interceptions rank in the bottom 25% among national QBs. Texas will need to get pressure on Maynard to force him out of the pocket, where he’s far less effective. If not, Maynard will give WR Keenan Allen, who ranks 12^th in the nation with 1,261 yards receiving on 89 receptions, time to get open. At 6-3, he’s a jump-ball threat, and will likely require bracket coverage. This, to me, is the side of the ball that will determine the outcome. If Texas can stop the run and put pressure on Maynard, they’ll likely win. If not, this game becomes a lot tougher for the Horns.

Special teams

There’s really only one area of note here, and that’s Bears punter Bryan Anger. A three-time first-team All-Pac-10 (Pac-12) selection, he’ll likely get it again, as he ranks 17^th in the nation with 43.6 yards per boot. He’s a special teams weapon, but other than that, there’s not a ton to talk about for Cal. Brandon Bigelow is a serviceable but average kick returner; Marvin Jones is a serviceable but average punt returner; and while kicker Giorgio Tavecchio is very accurate (19 of 22, including a perfect 7-for-7 from 30-39 yards), his issues with extra points kind of make him a wash.

Three Keys for Texas

1) Stop. The. Run. I’m not sure I can emphasize this enough. If Texas stops the run and force QB Zach Maynard to beat then, they’ll find that Cal’s offense becomes pretty average. If Isi Sofele has a big game, Cal is in business. If not, it could be a long night for the Bears.

2) Win up front. Let’s be honest: Texas is probably not going to throw the ball well against the talented Cal secondary. It’ll be up to whoever’s healthy – likely Malcolm Brown and/or Joe Bergeron – to get something going offensively, which means it’ll be up to the Texas offensive line to plow the road for them.

3) Razzle dazzle. Texas didn’t hire offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin to be boring. I fully expect a few trick plays for the Longhorns, and if they hit them, it could put Cal back on their heels.

Prediction

Can the Longhorns put the loss to Baylor behind them? I think they can; Mack Brown hasn’t gotten where he is letting teams dwell on weeks past. I think the Texas defense stands tall, DB Carrington Byndom has a big game in pass coverage, and the Horns get the combination of strong running and some trickery to earn a hard-fought 18-14 win.

UH's new man

Thu, 22 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0600

By Travis Stewart and Greg Tepper // TexasFootball.com

The University of Houston announced today that former assistant head coach Tony Levine will become the 13th coach in school history, promoted following Kevin Sumlin's departure for Texas A&M.

The news came after a 12-day search that included multiple candidates from the southwest United States, but Levine, who has coached at the high school, college and NFL level, was always a popular choice amongst players and administration. Since joining the staff with Sumlin in 2008, Levine has been a special teams coordinator, inside receivers coach and tight ends coach. He's also been the interim coach since Sumlin announced he was leaving two weeks ago.

"Before we began this process, we talked about the characteristics we wanted in the leader of our football program, and Tony embodies each of those qualities," UH athletic director Mack Rhoades told the Houston Chronicle. "We spoke with former players, current student-athletes, and interviewed some of the top football coaches in the country, and all of our talks led us right back to Tony."

Prior to joining Houston in 2008, Levine spent time as an assistant -- usually with special teams -- for the Carolina Panthers, Louisville, Auburn and Texas State. He began his career as an assistant coach with his high school alma mater, Highland Park in Minnesota, after graduating from Minnesota. His much-varied playing career includes being a three-time letterwinner as a walk-on at Minnesota and, interestingly enough, one season as a wide receiver with the Arena Football League's Minnesota Fighting Pike.

Levine, speaking at a press conference announcing his hiring on Thursday, called the position "a dream job," but immediately set his sights on his first head coaching game: Jan. 2 in the TicketCity Bowl against Penn State.

"When you talk about these expectations and the success we've had moving forward there will be questions on who will be a part of our staff and what our philosophy will look like," Levine said, "but what I can tell you is in the short term, our coaching staff and I are committed to work through the next 11 days and coach our team against Penn State."

So what does this mean for the Houston program? Continuity, first and foremost: with Sumlin's departure and one of his top aides taking his place, the odds of the Coogs keeping its 2012 recruiting class intact increases. And Levine will also have an opportunity to keep some of Sumlin's other key assistants -- guys like OC Kliff Kingsbury -- aboard.

Levine's recruiting prowess is a bit of a mystery. He was co-recruiting coordinator for a year at Texas State, but since then, it appears to have taken a back seat to his coaching duties. In any case, if Levine can capitalize on the recruiting in-roads that Sumlin made during his tenure, the Coogs should at least be able to recruit a little better. And a move to AQ status when UH joins the Big East should provide at least a small boost.

All in all, this hire seems to indicate that AD Mack Rhoades' plan is for continuity as opposed to massive change. With a conference change on the horizon and the departure of one of UH's finest teams, Levine will have a variety of issues to iron out. But if the players and administration are right in their confidence in Levine, the Coogs shouldn't miss a beat.

Poinsettia Bowl preview

Wed, 21 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0600

By Greg Tepper // TexasFootball.com

In a way, tonight’s Poinsettia Bowl is both exciting and disappointing to the TCU Horned Frogs.

On one hand, this was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Frogs. After losing a number of major cogs from last year’s Rose Bowl champions – most notably QB Andy Dalton – TCU was expected to take a step back. Instead, at 10-2, you can say that the Frogs’ season is a moderate – if not wild – success.

On the other hand, the Frogs were once again shipped out to San Diego for the Poinsettia Bowl after being passed over by the BCS bowls (not necessarily surprising) and the Las Vegas Bowl (who chose Boise State). It’s the third time in six years that the Frogs are playing there, and it must be growing tiresome.

In any case, the Frogs must now focus on the task at hand: the WAC champion Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, a squad that while it may not be overwhelming in obvious ways can beat you in a “death by a thousand cuts” way if you let them hang around. I think TCU is the superior team in this game, but one has to wonder where the team’s head is after being passed over for another bowl in another strong season. A loss would dampen an otherwise optimistic season; a win would push the Frogs to 11 wins for the fourth consecutive season, a claim not even Alabama can make.

For each of these bowl previews, I’m going to lean pretty heavily on the great work done by Football Outsiders, the organization on the forefront of deep statistical analysis of football. Yes, I’m aware that I’m a dork, and I know that many football fans see numbers as the enemy as opposed to the ally, but in the end, we’re all just looking for a better, more complete way to analyze the game we love. That’s why I gravitate toward statistical analysis; when done thoroughly and well, it can provide a deeper glimpse into what we’re seeing than the limited (and often flawed or skewed) power of our mind’s recollection.

Our weapon of choice in these analyses: the S&P+ Ratings, a Football Outsiders-derived statistic that seeks to measure and normalize (according to strength of schedule) each facet of both sides of the ball. I encourage you to read all about what goes into the statistic – it’s really fascinating, and in-depth, and multi-faceted – but for the “too long, didn’t read” crowd: a “100” rating is exactly average, and how far from that “100” baseline represents how much above or below average that particular unit is. For example, the Baylor offense’s Passing S&P+ is 154.7 (good enough for third in the nation), meaning that when Baylor passes the ball, it is ~1.5 times as effective as the average collegiate passing offense.

Again, I encourage you to read what all goes into it; the folks at Football Outsiders do tremendous work.

In any case, on to our Poinsettia Bowl preview!

When TCU has the ball

TCU O S&P+ (Rnk)	Category	LaTech D S&P+ (Rnk)
123.1 (13)	Overall	119.3 (19)
118.8 (22)	Rushing	117.9 (21)
124.2 (17)	Passing	121.5 (21)

TCU’s offense is rather potent, especially when QB Casey Pachall gets going, but it’ll be going up against arguably the WAC’s best defensive unit. The Bulldogs are led by a pair of terrific linebackers in Adrien Cole and Jay Dudley, guys with strangely different skillsets despite playing right next to one another. Cole is a superior run-stuffer: he’s notched a team-high 120 tackles and 13 TFL on the year. Dudley is superior in coverage: his four interceptions actually leads the team, a bit of a rarity for a linebacker. In any case, when you combine those strong linebackers with pretty decent front led by Matt Broha and Christian Lacey, I can see the TCU running attack of Waymon James and company being perhaps more contained than in games past, but if it can get going early, that bodes very, very well for TCU. That’s because Pachall, on the other hand, could be in for a big day. Louisiana Tech’s secondary has been roasted in games past, including losses to Southern Miss, Houston and Hawaii. The loss of WR Antoine Hicks to the ever-mysterious “violation of team rules” hurts, but the Horned Frogs’ receiving corps is deep enough to absorb the blow and keep moving forward. Expect Josh Boyce, Skye Dawson and Brandon Carter to get a lot of work, as well as guys like James and Ed Wesley coming out of the backfield. The key to that, though, is providing protection to Pachall, and therein lies perhaps the biggest factor in this game: the TCU offensive line against the LaTech defensive line. Louisiana Tech ranks 19^th in the nation with 32 sacks, again led by the aforementioned Broha and Lacey; TCU ranks 17^th in the nation with just 13 sacks allowed all year. Something has to give, and if TCU can give Pachall time, he should be able to pick apart the Bulldogs secondary.

When Louisiana Tech has the ball

TCU D S&P+ (Rnk)	Category	LaTech O S&P+ (Rnk)
115.0 (26)	Overall	91.7 (88)
144.5 (5)	Rushing	95.2 (86)
97.1 (70)	Passing	85.2 (97)

This is where TCU fans start rubbing their hands together gleefully. Louisiana Tech is pretty poor offensively, and with star RB Lennon Creer not playing due to academic ineligibility, the Bulldogs offense looks downright dreadful. The Horned Frogs defense, on the other hand, seems to be peaking after a slow start, with LB Tank Carder beginning to round into the guy we thought he’d be, DB Johnny Fobbs becoming a secondary stud, and DE Stansly Maponga becoming, well, an offensive line coach’s worst nightmare. All signs point to a TCU domination on this side. With the aforementioned Creer out, the torch likely gets passed to true freshman RB Hunter Lee to attempt to find his way against one of the nation’s elite run defenses. Simply put: it would stun me if Louisiana Tech is able to run the ball at all in this one, putting the onus squarely on junior QB Colby Cameron. Cameron took over the reins halfway through the season after freshman Nick Isham’s ineffective campaign and has actually been pretty darn good, completing 56% of his passes for 230 yards per game and 11 TDs compared to just a pair of interceptions. He’s by no means great, but he’s at least serviceable. He’ll look to hook up with the Bulldogs’ lone big-play threat: WR Quinton Patton. At 6-2 and 200 pounds, Patton’s a bit of a matchup problem, and he’s exploited that to the tune of 73 catches for 1,135 yards and 10 scores. To be really honest, it’s probably going to take at least three big plays to Patton to get this offense going, and while the Frogs’ defense has been burned in the past, that’s against the likes of Robert Griffin III and Kellen Moore, not a Colby Cameron. The TCU defense holds a pretty clear edge across the board here, a kind of edge that is big enough likely to determine the entire game.

Special Teams

If you’re looking for an x-factor, it’s probably Ryan Allen. The redshirt junior just won the Ray Guy Award as the nation’s best punter, you can’t say he’s not deserving: he ranks third in punting average (46.3 yards per punt), first in punts inside the 20 (37 of them) and first in punts inside the 10 (20 of them). He’s really, really, really good, and Louisiana Tech uses him liberally to pin back opponents. So don’t be surprised if Pachall and Company are starting a lot of drives from their own 10 yard line. TCU punter Anson Kelton isn’t bad, but he’s not in Allen’s league. Cibolo Steele product Matt Nelson does the kicking for the Bulldogs, and he’s basically your average kicker, getting a touchback a little less than 15% of the time and making about 75% of his field goals. He’s pretty much money from 40 and in, and beyond that becomes a coin flip. It appears that Ross Evans will kick for TCU despite some run-ins with the law, but there’s not enough of a distinction between Evans and Nelson to truly draw an advantage.

Three Keys for TCU

1) Focus. TCU is the better team in this game. If the Horned Frogs stick to the game plan and play up to their capability, they should win.

2) Protect Pachall. The sophomore quarterback is going to be the best offensive weapon the Frogs have against Louisiana Tech’s strong defense; it’s up to that big offensive line to keep him upright and give him time to find receivers.

3) Dominate defensively. This is one of those strange situations where one side of the ball appears to be so lopsided in advantage that it can win the game outright. TCU’s defense is peaking right now, while Louisiana Tech’s is scuffling and missing its best player. Take advantage.

Prediction

The loss of Lennon Creer makes this game a lot easier to call, if you ask me. TCU’s defense dominates, Casey Pachall throws for three touchdowns, running lanes open up for Waymon James and Ed Wesley starting in the second half, and TCU rolls to a 38-17 victory and their 11^th win of the season.

New man on campus

Tue, 13 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0600

By Travis Stewart // TexasFootball.com

Having dealt with ex-Coog and new Ag Kevin Sumlin on more than one occasion, I feel like I have a decent read on the man.

He's smart, there's no doubt about that. He knows his football and he knows his team, and, even in a short discussion, he leaves no doubt that he has a plan, and that he expects that plan to be as close to perfect as a plan can be. Confidence was a term thrown around quite a bit following yesterday's introductory press conference for Texas A&M's newest head coach. An apt one, I think.

But the trait that's always stood out the most to me regarding Sumlin is a kissing cousin to that confidence, one that only surfaces when necessary but with swift, accurate force — he doesn't take guff from anyone. Ever.

Not from me, not from you, not from a player, not from anyone. That's not to say he's combative, by any means. But again, the man has a plan — and, regardless of what we may think, he knows more about that plan than us. So if you're going to question it, you better come exceedingly informed and ready for a little push back. And it's not easy being more learned on a blueprint than the man who drew it up.

Contrast that, if you will, with the two personalities he now follows in College Station: Dennis Franchione and, more recently, Mike Sherman. I've dealt with both of them on more than one occasion, too. In some ways, they are alike; both are pretty affable — especially Sherman. They're both ten or more years older than Sumlin, so they've been around the game long enough to have officially seen it all. For better or worse.

Sumlin, on the other hand, has never given off the air that he's afraid to step on toes. That's not to say he's out looking for toes, mind you. Just that he's not going to spare any if they're jutting out in his way. Now consider the situation he's walking into — he's manning the helm of a team that underperformed in 2011, that's going to be lacking in senior leadership in 2012, and is about to move to the best football conference (and division) in America.

It's one man's opinion, but I think a little grit and vinegar is a good thing right now.

For one, timidness is not going to sell when Sumlin steps foot in the homes of the No. 6-ranked recruiting class in the nation over the coming weeks. Sumlin is not the man Trey Williams, Bralon Addison and Matt Davis signed up for. He knows that, they know that. But all of the class' big names seem receptive to talking to him. I won't be overdramatic and say Sumlin's got "one shot to get it right" or anything, but know that every other school out there is making its best pitch to the Aggie elites right now. A good first impression will help. A lot.

But Sumlin, along with the fact that he's got a sterling offensive background — first at A&M, then at Oklahoma, and lastly at Houston — has been in the Bayou City long enough to know the ropes. He knows its I-45 up to Spring for Williams, a hop-skip-jump north to Davis in Klein, and a west-then-south trip along Sam Houston to get to Fort Bend and Addison. Again, a man with a plan.

But are we over-fretting regarding one recruiting class when the Ags are in the midst of a murderous move to the SEC West? Isn't that going to be a process that transcends one group of kids? Yes and no, probably. One class or one recruit shouldn't make a man, no matter the school. But what are the '05 Longhorns without Vince Young? What are the '10 Horned Frogs without Andy Dalton?

What are the '11 Bears without Robert Griffin III?

And maybe, in that vein, we'll be asking in ten years what the Aggies would be without Kevin Sumlin as their head coach. Maybe not. But regardless of the end product, we know that Sumlin has a plan to get there — and it's time we step out of the way and let the man execute it.